Soviet ultimatum to Lithuania
Further Soviet actions to establish its dominance in its sphere of influence were delayed by the Winter War with Finland and resumed in spring 1940 when Germany was making rapid advances in western Europe.
With Soviet troops already stationed in the country in accordance with to the Mutual Assistance Treaty, it was impossible to mount effective military resistance.
[2] In conformity with this, the Soviets followed semi-legal procedures: they took control of the governmental institutions, installed a puppet government, and carried out show elections to the People's Seimas.
The Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia were part of the Russian Empire during the 19th century, achieving independence in the aftermath of World War I.
[10] Pursuing this strategy, the Soviet Union initiated the Winter War in Finland after that country rejected a similar Moscow-offered mutual assistance treaty.
At that time, the Lithuanian envoys Stasys Lozoraitis, Petras Klimas, and Bronius Kazys Balutis prepared a memorandum containing contingency plans.
They advised strengthening the army, depositing funds abroad, reinforcing the 1934 Baltic Entente alliance with Latvia and Estonia, and investigating the establishment of a government-in-exile.
[19] Mindful of their circumstances, the three governments worded their communications carefully,[20] but the talks would be used as evidence that Lithuania was conspiring with Latvia and Estonia in violation of the mutual assistance treaty.
[1] On 16 May shortly after the German invasion of Luxembourg, Belgium, and the Netherlands, Soviet official newspaper Izvestia published an article warning that it was naive for a small country to attempt neutrality while giants were fighting for survival.
[22] Between 18 and 25 May, Soviet soldiers moved some military equipment from Vilnius to Gaižiūnai, a location much closer to the government seat in Kaunas.
[24] The note alleged that two soldiers had been tortured to obtain Soviet military secrets but managed to escape, and that the third, Butayev, was murdered.
[20] The Lithuanian police tightened security around Soviet bases and arrested 272 suspicious individuals, but that only drew additional criticism of harassment.
Other charges were leveled, including the allegation that Minister of the Interior Kazys Skučas and Director of State Security Department Augustinas Povilaitis had provoked Soviet soldiers.
[28] During the second meeting on 9 June,[15] Molotov also accused the Lithuanian government of conspiring with Latvia and Estonia to establish a secret military union (in reference to the Baltic Entente), thereby violating the mutual assistance pact.
It decided that Merkys should return to Kaunas and Urbšys should deliver a note offering withdrawal from the Baltic Entente, a full investigation of the incident, and dismissal of Skučas and Povilaitis.
[30] A personal letter from President Antanas Smetona to Chairman of Presidium of the Supreme Soviet Mikhail Kalinin repeated assurances that Lithuania always honored the mutual assistance pact.
[32] Urbšys reported that the Soviets strongly disapproved of Merkys and his cabinet; he suggested that a new government be installed, possibly led by Stasys Raštikis, former Commander-in-Chief of the Lithuanian Army.
[34] This episode was harshly criticized afterwards as an illustration of several weaknesses in the Lithuanian government: it underestimated the threat posed by the Soviet Union, it was disoriented during the crisis, and its members focused on party interests rather than national priorities.
As of 5 June, all Soviet forces in the Baltic region were assigned to command of Semyon Timoshenko, People's Commissar for Defense.
[37] The Soviets gathered their forces on Lithuania's eastern border in modern-day Belarus; they consisted of five divisions and supporting units from the 3rd and the 11th Armies.
[37] On 11 June, under the command of General Dmitry Pavlov, the Soviets finalized their attack plan and assigned specific tasks to all units.
[40] At other points the Soviets interrogated Lithuanian border guards and harassed civilians, hoping to provoke a retaliation that would serve as a rationale for a full-scale military attack.
Smetona, who continued to disagree with the majority of his government, decided to leave the country in protest and appointed Merkys as acting president.
[50] By late evening on 15 June, Smetona and Minister of Defense Kazys Musteikis reached Kybartai and crossed the border into Germany, where they were granted temporary asylum.
The Red Army was scheduled to enter Lithuanian territory from three separate directions at 3:00 pm and had orders to take control of Vilnius, Kaunas, Raseiniai, Panevėžys, and Šiauliai.
[54] On 16 June, the Lithuanian government, exceeding its authority, decided that Smetona's emigration was in effect a resignation[55] and granted Merkys full presidential powers.
[71] The drop in production, combined with massive spending of appreciated roubles by Soviet soldiers and officials, caused widespread shortages.
When the Red Army regained control of Lithuania in summer 1944 – January 1945, the Lithuanian partisans began an armed struggle against the second Soviet occupation.
Observers criticized the Lithuanian Army, which had been consuming some 20% of the state budget, for not staging even a symbolic resistance, which would have invalidated Soviet claims that the takeover was a "socialist revolution" and a legitimate change of government.
Barring armed resistance, diplomatic options remained — the Lithuanian government could have rejected the ultimatum, retreated abroad, and formed a recognized government-in-exile.
