1998–99 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

The strongest storm – Evrina – peaked as a strong cyclone in the Australian but weakened upon crossing 90°E, with 10-minute maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph) in the basin.

The agency estimated intensity through the Dvorak technique,[1] and warned on tropical cyclones in the region from the coast of Africa to 90° E, south of the equator.

There were 28 days in which there was storm or tropical cyclone activity, less than the average of 42 and at the time the fourth lowest since reliable record-keeping began in 1967 with the advent of satellite imagery.

[1] After a subtropical depression exited the Mozambique Channel, another area of convection formed in the region on January 8, which fluctuated in intensity for several days.

[1] Two days later, a subtropical disturbance formed offshore Beira, Mozambique, classified due to the extratropical origins and lack of centralized convection.

[5] Alda accelerated to the southeast and gradually lost tropical characteristics, becoming extratropical on January 19 before being absorbed by the approaching cold front.

Subsequently, an increase in wind shear induced steady weakening, causing the circulation to be briefly exposed from the convection on January 26.

[1] Soon after Damien-Birenda exited the Australian region, another tropical disturbance formed north of the Cocos on January 29, which was initially weak but gradually organized.

The disturbance tracked quickly west-westward due to a powerful ridge to the south, remaining in tandem with Tropical Storm Birenda about 1,300 km (810 mi) to the east.

[9] The fast forward motion caused the effects of wind shear to diminish as well as increase the circulation's strength, and the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Chikita on January 31.

Wet weather persisted after Chikita dissipated, resulting in four-day totals of 953 mm (37.5 in) in Bébourg on Réunion,[1] and easing drought conditions on Mauritius.

[10] After an extended period with no activity across much of the Indian Ocean, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rebuilt toward the end of February, and spawned an area of convection on March 1 in the extreme eastern portion of the basin.

The influence of the monsoon trough steered the disturbance to the southeast into the Australian basin, where moderate wind shear prevented quick development.

A building ridge to the south turned the system to the southwest, bringing it back into the south-west Indian on March 3 as a tropical depression.

With decreasing wind shear, the depression slowly intensified as convection increased, becoming Tropical Storm Davina on March 4.

The next day, the storm slowed its forward motion and rapidly weakened due to increasing wind shear, becoming a tropical depression on March 12.

[1] Cyclone Davina affected Rodrigues as a weakening storm, which limited wind gusts to 137 km/h (85 mph) and rainfall to only 40 mm (1.6 in).

On the island, the airport at Plaisance recorded a peak gust of 169 km/h (105 mph),[1] strong enough to cause crop damage and injure 60 people.

[12] On March 25, an area of convection formed along the monsoon trough in the Australian basin, gradually organizing into a tropical storm while moving west-southwestward and given the name Frederic.

At its peak on March 31, Frederic developed a well-defined 40 km (25 mi) eye within a circular central dense overcast.

Later in the month, Tropical Disturbance A2 formed in a similar region within the monsoon trough, with the MFR initiating advisories on September 29.

[17] That day, the JTWC upgraded the system to tropical storm status,[18] although strong wind shear prevented intensification.

The MFR quickly discontinued advisories, but the JTWC continued tracking it, again upgrading the system to tropical storm status on October 1.

The disturbance accelerated to the southeast, passing southwest of Madagascar with an asymmetric structure;[1] most of the convection was on the eastern periphery due to strong wind shear.

[5] During an extended period of quiet conditions across much of the basin, an area of low pressure persisted along the eastern coast of Mozambique.

That day, the thunderstorms organized into a circulation that had formed less than 200 km (120 mi) southeast of Beira, Mozambique, becoming Tropical Disturbance D1.

[12] On March 7, the JTWC initiated advisories on the system as Tropical Cyclone 26S,[3][12] briefly estimating peak 1-minute winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) the next day.

[12] Continuing westward along the northern edge of a strong ridge, the disturbance failed to intensify due to easterly wind shear.

Although the MFR ceased issuing advisories, they noted that a distinct circulation persisted,[1] reaching a location to the north of Mauritius by March 16.

It initially failed to develop more, but after an increase in convection, the system intensified into a tropical depression on March 14 while moving generally west-northwestward.