Graf was considered too conservative for the district: Kolbe withheld his endorsement, and towards the end of the election the National GOP pulled their support.

By election time, most non-partisan analyses considered this race the most likely district to switch hands, which it did, as Giffords won a decisive victory, 54% to 42%.

[11] A supporter of the Minuteman Project, Graf campaigned on a pledge to ensure that illegal immigrants had no path to citizenship and that the border would be further secured.

[12] The GOP establishment, however, considered Graf as too conservative for a district that leaned Republican but gave President Bush only 53 percent of the votes in 2004, and tried to rally voters around moderate state representative Steve Huffman.

[13] Federal officials Organizations Newspapers Gabby Giffords, who was former State Senator, resigned from the Arizona Legislature just eight days after Kolbe's announcement, in order to run for his seat.

[17] Graf's campaign got off to a rough start in mid-September when outgoing Republican incumbent Jim Kolbe withheld his endorsement, citing "profound and fundamental differences" between their views.

[22][23] The Arizona Republic wrote that a "victory by Graf would in effect repudiate much of Kolbe's work on what has come to be known as 'comprehensive' immigration reform.

The Cook Political Report changed their rating from "Toss Up" to "Leans Democratic",[25] and the national Republican Party cancelled about $1 million in advertising support.