In both cases, as well as in other, less important efforts by the European Union and the OSCE, the potential deals failed as Russian-backed Abkhaz separatists refused to reach a compromise before a complete Georgian withdrawal from the Kodori Valley, the last Georgian-held stronghold in Abkhazia and location of several clashes in previous years, including the Achamkhara incident in July 2008.

Ronald Asmus criticized the lack of any preventive strategy to "shield Tbilisi or to mitigate such consequences – except for weak diplomatic talking points" and argued that in preparation for a Russian retaliation, the United States and the European Union should have pushed for an expansion of UNOMIG and the OSCE mission in South Ossetia to help control dynamics on the ground.

Boris Gryzlov, Chairman of the State Duma, held a meeting with separatist leaders Sergei Baghapsh and Eduard Kokoity and pledged that Russia would "reshape its relations" with self-proclaimed republics, while both used the Kosovo declaration as an opportunity to forge closer alliances with Russian hardliners.

[80] European Parliament Member Laima Andrikienė called on Russia to withdraw from the breakaway republics, abandon management of the frozen conflicts to the international community, and seek a "real chance to reach a long-awaited solution in everyone's interest" if it wanted to use Kosovo as an actual precedent.

[139] Georgia's NATO integration was most backed by the United States, although high-level officials in the Bush administration, namely Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates were at odds with the White House's most ardent neoconservatives, including Vice-President Dick Cheney,[151] over when to grant the country the MAP.

"[153] During a visit to Kyiv on 1 April, Bush once again reiterated his backing for the two countries' NATO integration, believing that granting the MAP would protect them from a growing Russian threat, would encourage them to pursue democratic reforms, and would be a reward for their "courage in being able to confront Russia to join the Western bloc.

American foreign policy expert Angela Stent has called this compromise "the worst of both worlds"[151] as it failed to provide a clear timetable,[168] even though the Allies agreed to review the situation at the next summit in December,[169] while sending Russia a signal that it could use existing conflicts to veto Georgia's NATO integration.

Though Russia formally played the role of mediator in the conflicts between Georgia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, it enjoyed a strong influence in the separatist governments years before 2008 and exerted control via key security officials and financial assistance to what Tbilisi called "Russian proxy regimes".

[200] The 16 April decrees were praised by separatist authorities, with Abkhaz Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba claiming that Abkhazia was "very close to recognition" and that Sokhumi was "not afraid of any backlash from Tbilisi"[66] and President Baghapsh convening a Security Council session to discuss next steps.

One of the most ardent supports of Abkhazia's independence in Russia was Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, whose statements led to Georgian MPs Nika Rurua and Irakli Kavtaradze to call for him to be declared persona non grata,[231] while Kokoity engaged directly with other Russian hardliners like communist Gennady Zyuganov and North Ossetian President Teimuraz Mamsurov.

According to later reports confirmed by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Georgia and Russia were "dangerously close" to an armed conflict following the 20 April episode[242] and President Saakashvili admitted that French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner's mediation "prevented war".

[264] Mikheil Saakashvili, who privately saw the events as the beginning of a full-scale war,[265] made a televised address calling on the populations of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to "defy attempts by outrageous and irresponsible external actors", while seeking to deescalate by stating that Georgia "wants peace."

On the other hand, Georgian media outlets reported on an alleged Russo-Abkhaz plan to invade the Kodori Valley and parts of Western Georgia in a special operation code-named "Double Dbar" with high-ranking Russian military officials visiting Sokhumi to coordinate a joint attack.

[285] Though no evidence of the FSB's allegations were published, the story was covered extensively by Russian and Abkhaz media, in what Dr. Dani Belo of Carleton University called "the first provocations" in a series of steps meant to instigate fear and facilitate Abkhazia's submission to Moscow's orders.

According to Moscow, Turkoshvili was tasked with maintaining a line of communication between Tbilisi and separatist groups in the North Caucasus, gathering information about local Russian government officials for potential recruitment, and negotiating with law enforcement to ensure the safe passage of militants across the region.

[315] The same day, separatist South Ossetian authorities launched a wave of arrests in the region of individuals it had identified as "national security risks" for their opposition to local strongman Eduard Kokoity and the Georgian government condemned "unprecedented punitive measures and repressions carried out against those with dissenting opinions.

On 27 March, a car explosion targeting separatist prosecutor Teimuraz Khugayev killed one civilian in Tskhinvali, although the Georgian Interior Ministry alleged the blast was the result of an internal power struggle, comparing the region to a "black hole ruled by bandits and illegal groups.

[321] On 31 March, the JPKF accused Georgian forces of shelling a South Ossetian irregular post in Okona for up to 40 minutes using small arms and grenade launchers but causing no injury, though Tbilisi denied having any involvement in the incident and instead blamed internal criminal organizations.

Questions were raised about why journalists were stationed in Khurcha instead of the voting precinct in Zugdidi, who had organized the bus transportation, the speed at which Georgian law enforcement responded to the attack, and the fact that the RPGs were launched from Georgian-held territory, indicating an incursion by Abkhaz militants.

After Saakashvili's departure from power in 2013, the new government led by Bidzina Ivanishvili called the Khurcha attack a "terrorist act" perpetrated by Georgia itself[349] and Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili declared the prosecution of MIA officials involved with the planning of the clash a "priority".

[382] On 13 June, less than two weeks after the deployment of Russian Railway Troops in Abkhazia, the Ministry of Defense of Russia claimed having discovered a TM-62 anti-tank mine planted under a rail close to the village of Tamishi in the Ochamchire district, which Moscow called an attempt at a "subversive-terrorist act".

In a later interview, Mikheil Saakashvili called them "strange explosions" that reminded him of the "Chechen scenario", a reference to the 1999 Russian apartment bombings used by the Putin administration at the time to justify an intervention in Chechnya, while his cabinet purposely refused to react strongly to the blasts, officially to avoid provoking a war of words.

Still days before the war, Defense Minister Davit Kezerashvili was on vacation abroad, both of his deputies were preparing to follow suit, and the armed forces were at their lowest level of readiness since April as their commanders had just been authorized to grant units leave after months of active mobilization.

Much of the exercises featured the mobilization of paratroopers and tactical training for regular subunits with air support, including the neutralization of "bandit formations", establishing control over "liberated territories", reconnaissance-sweep operations, offensives against guerilla warfare in forests, and assault and defense of urban areas.

[547] During those days, characterized as "more systemic and lethal than in previous summers",[547] Georgian villages in the conflict zone were progressively cut off from the rest of the country and eventually destroyed by the very same North Caucasian volunteers that had come to assist South Ossetian separatists,[556] all at a time when the world's attention was, according to Ronald Asmus, distracted by the Beijing Olympics.

[589] [590] [482] At 23:35, Saakashvili, while in his office with Iakobashvili,[591] issued an order directing Major General Zaza Gogava,[588] Chief of the Joint Staff of the Georgian Armed Forces, to neutralize South Ossetian assault positions in Tskhinvali, prevent the movement of Russian troops from Java and through the Roki Tunnel, and avoid civilian casualties.

[673] It was around the same time that Georgia credited France with having "avoided war" with Russia shortly after the downing of a Georgian drone over Abkhazia by a Russian military jet on April 20,[470] while American pressure made the European Council launch a parallel diplomacy campaign to seek a conflict settlement in May.

[674] On May 12, the Foreign Ministers of Lithuania (Petras Vaitiekūnas), Latvia (Māris Riekstiņš), Poland (Radosław Sikorski), Sweden (Carl Bildt), and Slovenia (Dimitrij Rupel) visited Georgia on behalf of the European Council to explore ways to halt the hostile actions and rhetoric in the conflict.

Berlin at the time enjoyed close economic ties with Russia, as well as a historical partnership with Georgia and feared that a worsening of the situation on the ground would force it to pick sides, while it had also been responsible for denying Tbilisi's NATO bid during the April Bucharest Summit.

[729] MP Kakha Kukava (United Opposition) alleged there were "serious suspicions" that the tensions with Russia were fabricated by Tbilisi to distract the public from domestic issues, comparing the developments to former President Shevardnadze's "Abkhaz adventure" done to counter an armed rebellion by supporters of Zviad Gamsakhurdia.