[2] With the CDU/CSU having pledged not to work with either the AfD or The Left before the federal election, the only remaining option for a majority government was a Jamaica coalition consisting of the CDU/CSU, FDP, and the Greens.

Interior Minister and CSU leader Horst Seehofer threatened to undercut Merkel's authority by closing German borders for asylum seekers registered in another European Union (EU) country.

[31] Cem Özdemir and Simone Peter stood down as co-leaders of the Greens after the failed Jamaica negotiations, and Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck were elected as their successors in January 2018.

They scored record results in the Bavarian and Hessian state elections in October and subsequently surpassed the SPD in public opinion, settling in second behind the CDU/CSU for the next three years.

[41] The Center for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS) found that false claims of voter fraud had become commonplace on Telegram in Germany, with accusations against Dominion Voting Systems being common despite the company's technology not being used in German elections.

The two men failed to come to an agreement by the given deadline of 19 April,[44] leading the federal CDU board to hold an impromptu meeting to break the deadlock.

[49] On 21 March 2021, the FDP association in North Rhine-Westphalia elected federal chairman Christian Lindner as top candidate for the party list in that state.

[53] Due to their rise in national opinion polling since 2018, the Greens were expected to forgo the traditional dual lead-candidacy in favour of selecting a single chancellor candidate.

They demanded a sincere dialogue with the leaders of the main political parties before the elections and the establishment of a citizens' convention to decide on ambitious measures for the climate.

[63] During the deadly 2021 floods, while visiting Erftstadt on 18 July, the CDU/CSU lead candidate Armin Laschet was caught laughing on camera and making jokes while President Frank-Walter Steinmeier was speaking.

[70] Writing for The Guardian, Philip Oltermann commented: "Paradoxically, some Social Democrats see such commonalities as an obstacle rather than a boon for an effective power-sharing deal: since all three parties already call for a wealth tax, for example, it's unclear what policy Die Linke could sell its supporters as a win even if were to get its hands on the coveted labour ministry.

"[69] Oltermann posited that The Left could see entering federal government as "a final chance to reverse the party's decline, even if it means moving some of its red lines of old.

"[69] In its election manifesto, The Left called for abolishing NATO in favour of a "collective security system with Russia's involvement", to which Scholz said that this is an example of minimum criteria to govern which is not negotiable.

[71] The Left's lead candidates stated that those demands are a tribute to the party's historic anti-imperialist roots rather than reflecting ambitions to govern at the federal level and a discussion on the future of NATO is also being led by centrists such as France's Emmanuel Macron.

[69] The Left joining the federal government would have broken a taboo due to being a democratic successor of East Germany's ruling party, and for its pacifist and anti-militarist stance,[69] and could be seen as following examples in Spain and Sweden.

For the first time since 2002, the SPD swept all single-member constituency seats in the states of Brandenburg and Saarland, where they defeated cabinet ministers Peter Altmaier and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.

[207] When the unpopular and little-known SPD leaders[208] Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken nominated moderate Olaf Scholz, whom they had unexpectedly defeated in the 2019 leadership election, as Chancellor candidate in August 2020,[209] they were widely mocked.

However, even at their historic poll lows around 14%, Olaf Scholz had a significantly higher personal approval rating than both his party and the other Chancellor candidates Laschet and Baerbock.

[211] After the extreme personal unpopularity, resulting from gaffes and scandal, meant that first Baerbock and then Laschet floundered, the SPD surprisingly took the lead, for the first time since early 2017, in the final stretches of the election campaign.

This surprising surge also meant that some "paper candidates", a lot of them young, were unexpectedly elected to the Bundestag, for example Jan Plobner, Jakob Blankenburg or Fabian Funke.

[citation needed] That being said, the surge and eventual outcome of the election was mainly decided by older voters, who switched from the CDU/CSU to the SPD,[212] which some attributed to Scholz being very similar in his calm and moderate leadership style to incumbent Angela Merkel.

This meant that the otherwise popular CDU/CSU platform of increasing digitization, reducing bureaucracy and moderate climate action were not taken seriously as his party had not addressed them in sixteen years of government in the minds of many voters.

This was seen as a rebuff to the party establishment, who had backed Kramp-Karrenbauer and Laschet, both seen as being more moderate, aligned in both policy positions and leadership style to Angela Merkel.

This was also the first federal election in which they won single-member constituency seats outside of Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg – Prenzlauer Berg East; however, expectations for them were a lot higher, with them polling at over 20% in the summer and peaking at around 25%, having briefly overtaken the CDU in April and May.

[242] In addition, while they only marginally improved their result in the West German states, their more significant increase in support in former East Germany amounted to their best performance there in the party's history.

[258] These public feuds intensified after the election,[259] for example, the convicted former head of government of East Germany Hans Modrow, who chairs The Left's "council of elders", denounced the party.

A possible upcoming 2024 repeat of the federal election in parts of Berlin was a threat to the faction status of The Left in the Bundestag, and to 38 of 39 members, with only the direct seat gained in Saxony being not affected.

With the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht establishing itself in October 2023 with 10 parliament members, the faction of The Left was dissolved in late 2023, losing funding and privileges by getting demoted to a group, or two in that case.

[272][273] On election night, SPD leader Scholz reiterated his goal to form a government, citing the fact that his party emerged as the largest in parliament.

[284] On 16 November, the general secretaries of the three traffic light coalition parties (SPD, FDP, Greens) announced that an agreement document was almost complete, with Scholz to become Chancellor, and that the details would be issued some time in the next week.