Ahead of the season officially starting on November 1, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and the University of Newcastle's Australian Centre for Water, Climate and Land (ACWCL), each issued a tropical cyclone outlook that discussed the upcoming season.
On October 19, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) reported that Tropical Disturbance 01F had developed out of an area of low pressure, about 1295 km (805 mi) to the northeast of Honiara in the Solomon Islands.
[7][8] At this time, the system was located in an area favourable for further development, with warm sea-surface temperatures of 30–31 °C (86–88 °F) and low to moderate vertical wind shear.
[12] Lola would rapidly intensify, becoming a Category 4 tropical cyclone on 12:00 UTC that day, peaking with maximum ten-minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph).
[13] With convective rain bands wrapping into the circulation, the JTWC assessed Lola as having one-minute sustained winds of 215 km/h (130 mph).
[20] Vanuatu Prime Minister Charlot Salwai took a Royal Australian Air Force to inspect the early damage.
[24] Although the disturbance was disorganized, it underwent further development from warm sea surface temperatures and low to moderate vertical wind shear.
[30] As the storm continued to move southeast by the southwest edge of a subtropical ridge, Mal strengthened into a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone at 12:00 UTC of the same day.
[33] On November 12, a gale alert was issued for the Yasawa and Mamanuca groups as well as the western and northern regions of Viti Levu.
[35] Nevertheless, the National Disaster Management Office of Fiji (NDMO) issued a tropical cyclone alert and citizens were urged to exercise caution.
[37] As powerlines and trees were knocked down by TC Mal across the nation, the Fiji NDMO advised the public to stay indoors and avoid unnecessary travel while recovery efforts were underway.
[40] Analysis from the JTWC indicated that the disturbance was in a favorable environment for development, with warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear.
[41] Moving southward, the disturbance would exit the basin on December 4 and enter the Australian region, where the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) assumed responsibility for the system.
[46][47] At this stage, the system was poorly organised and lied under the eastern edge of an upper-level ridge of high pressure in a low to moderate area of vertical wind shear, with sea surface temperatures near 29 °C (84 °F).
[60][61] Over the next few weeks, the FMS continued monitoring the system as a tropical disturbance, before it was last noted as it moved into the MetService's area of responsibility on February 28.
[62] A series of troughs of low pressure associated with the system caused heavy rain and flash flooding to be reported in the Western Central and Northern divisions at various times[63] with Lahasa suffering the brunt of the storm.
[64] On February 3, the JTWC started to monitor a subtropical disturbance that had persisted about 815 km (505 mi) to the south-southeast of Nadi, Fiji, within an area that was marginally conducive to further development.
[70] Despite partially exposing the LLLC and degrading its deep convection, the FMS upgraded the system into a Category 2 tropical cyclone on February 6.
[73] By February 8, the JTWC subsequently issued its final advisory on Nat,[74] as it moved steadily east-southwards within an environment of warm sea surface temperatures and moderate wind shear, the LLCC became exposed later.
[81] On February 5, the FMS noted that Tropical Disturbance 07F had developed within an area of moderate vertical windshear about 705 km (440 mi) to the northwest of Papeete in French Polynesia.
[82][83] During that day, atmospheric convection persisted over the low level circulation, as it moved south-eastwards and passed through French Polynesia's Society Islands.
[85] The disturbance was located within a favorable environment for further development with good equator-ward outflow, exceptionally warm (29–30 °C) sea surface temperatures.
[95][96] On February 11, the FMS noted that Tropical Disturbance 09F had developed within an area of high vertical windshear about 160 km (100 mi) to the southwest of Papeete in French Polynesia.
[97] Over the next couple of days, the disturbance moved south-eastwards and remained poorly organised with atmospheric convection displaced to the east of the low-level circulation centre, before it was last noted on February 13, as it dissipated to the north of the island of Rapa in French Polynesia.
[98][99][100] On February 14, the FMS noted that Tropical Depression 10F had formed about 350 km (215 mi) to the northeast of Palmerston in the Southern Cook Islands.
[102] The system embedded within the South Pacific Convergence Zone, to the northeast of Niue, leading the JTWC to issue a TCFA.