Incumbent LDP President and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on 14 August that he would not run for re-election, amid record-low approval ratings following controversy over a slush fund scandal involving the party factions Seiwakai and Shisuikai, both of which disbanded in January 2024.

[12][13] Ishiba's victory was described by commentators as unexpected and an upset, owing to his past leadership bid failures as well as his prior unpopularity with many LDP members of the Diet.

[16] Following the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe in 2022, the Unification Church (UC) new religious movement was shown to have significant political influence in the LDP, and the popularity for the party, as well as Kishida's approval rating, decreased.

[22][23][24] The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party submitted a vote of no confidence against Matsuno and the entirety of Kishida's cabinet as a result of the scandal.

[27] The first arrests took place on 7 January 2024, with former deputy minister of education Yoshitaki Ikeda and Kazuhiro Kakinuma, his assistant, being accused of concealing ¥48 million that the Seiwakai earned between 2018 and 2022.

A month later in January 2024, Kōchikai, along with Seiwakai and Shisuikai were dissolved, leaving Motegi's Heisei Kenkyūkai and Tarō Asō's Shikōkai as the only remaining factions left in the party.

[34][35] Mainichi Shimbun reports that the party could split between pro-Kishida and anti-Kishida forces ahead of the election, with some supporting Suga's criticism of Kishida.

[42] Shigeru Ishiba on 28 June informed his political allies of his intentions to run for the presidency and has begun making "concrete arrangements".

[45] Two days later he said that were he to run, he would campaign on deleting the second paragraph of Article 9 in the Japanese Constitution renouncing Japan's right to wage war.

[47] On 2 July the Yukan Fuji reported that Shinjirō Koizumi may be preparing to run for LDP president, with a goal of making it to the second round runoff.

[51] Motegi later said on 22 July that he would not be the first candidate to formally declare his intention to run, in order to avoid becoming the "Reiwa era Nobuteru Ishihara" who ran in the 2012 election.

[54] On 24 July Seiko Noda met with policy chief Tokai Kisaburo, Diet Affairs Chair Hamada Yasukazu (both of whom endorsed her campaign in 2021) and others to discuss her potential candidacy.

[55] Takayuki Kobayashi indicated on 12 August that the party should "balance out" punishments against Abe faction members for the kickback scandal, arguing that removal from leadership has made on the ground activities challenging.

[57] The same day Diet members Tatsuo Fukuda, Masanobu Ogura and Keitaro Ohno stated in an opinion piece that the election was "a big opportunity for a change in generation and appointing women," seemingly calling for Kishida to step aside.

[60] Kishida was reportedly pressured by influential members of the party, such as Taro Aso, Masahito Moriyama and Yoshimasa Hayashi to not seek a second term.

[61][62] The announcement reportedly unsettled Japanese markets, which were already disturbed by a surprise rate increase by the Bank of Japan in late July.

[63] At a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office on the same day, Kishida stated resigning was the "easiest way to clearly show that the LDP has changed".

[64][65] He also cited the slush funds scandal as a reason for stepping aside, believing it was the only way to take "responsibility" as party leader for losing trust from the public.

[72] Immediately after Kishida's announcement, several potential candidates were mentioned, among them being Taro Kono, Shigeru Ishiba, Toshimitsu Motegi, Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi.

That same day, Shinjiro Koizumi and Takayuki Kobayashi visited the Yasukuni Shrine on the 79th anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II.

[90] Former Minister of State for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi became the first to formally announce his candidacy during a press conference on August 19, emphasizing the need to "reform" the party.

[95] He originally planned to announce on August 27, but had to postpone in order to prioritize the government response to an imminent typhoon, in his capacity as Chief Cabinet Secretary.

[125][126] The two also disagreed on the creation of a Ministry for Disaster Prevention; Ishiba supported it while Kobayashi argued it would create more unnecessary bureaucracy.

[131] On 6 September, former Environment Minister Shinjirō Koizumi, who had been considered a "rising star" of the LDP, officially declared his candidacy in the leadership election at a press conference.

[142] The previous day his campaign released a comprehensive policy vision, which included labor market reform, use of renewable energy, the creation of a digital safety net and lowering the age of candidacy to 18 years old.

[143][144] On 9 September, Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi announced her second campaign for the LDP leadership, becoming the first female candidate to officially declare their candidacy.

[154] Ishiba practiced a strategy of consolidating national support, as he had been consistently ranked one of the most popular politicians in the country, but had burned bridges with much of the party establishment during the Abe cabinets.

Takaichi mixed both of these strategies and consolidated lawmakers involved in the slush fund scandal which rocked the LDP earlier in the year, causing the Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai to dissolve.

[158][159] In the leadership election on 27 September 2024, Ishiba narrowly defeated Takaichi in a second-round runoff, winning a total of 215 votes (52.57%) from 189 parliamentary members and 26 prefectural chapters, making him the new LDP leader and prime minister-designate.

[160] Ishiba's victory was described by commentators as unexpected and an upset, owing to his long history of failed leadership bids and his relative unpopularity with many LDP members of the Diet.