[5] Namely, Russia is seemingly supportive of a softer, less Russophilic, South Ossetia if it means a détente with the Georgian Dream-led Georgia.

Gagloev, president of the Nykhaz party, was a leading figure of the South Ossetian opposition, characterized for their more pragmatic approach with Russia and the support of domestic economic ventures.

[2] However, parliament remained under control of Gagloev's opposition, the South Ossetian political establishment, United Ossetia.

[2] Additionally, CACI speculated on a third outcome, a status quo, which would cripple the Republic until the 2027 South Ossetian presidential election and could spell total political collapse.

These include: On 6 May 2024, Gagloev reinstated many of the repressive election laws, limiting participation to just Nykhas, United Ossetia, the Communist Party, the People’s Party, Unity of the People, Ira Farn, and Unity as well as ending the ability for Ossetians abroad in Abkhazia, a United Ossetia stronghold, to vote, closing its polling station in Sukhumi citing “the impracticality of its operation.”[10] Former allies of Gagloev, Garri Muldarov and David Sanakoyev, who founded the For Justice party, protested being excluded.

[21] Caucasian Knot, interviewing a number of locals and political scientists, concluded that the results of the election were genuine, and that United Ossetia had simply underestimated the power of the rural voter that Nykhaz has centered its regime on.

[24] Despite this, the CEC's chairwoman refused to certify the results of the election, and held a recount, which saw the Communists drop below the 7% threshold to enter parliament, but where still awarded two seats (one from district results, and the other being the vice speaker since he was already sworn in), while both Nykhaz and United Ossetia had their mandates drop from 7 seats to 6 each.

"[25] One of the positions that Georgian Dream has taken is that now that they have warmed relations with Russia, that they can reincorporate South Ossetia and Abkhazia with Russian permission.

Then this new government shows it’s ready to turn away from the West toward Russia, return to the Commonwealth of Independent States, reject accession to NATO and even the European Union, instead joining the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

[26] Additionally, during the protests due to the 2024–2025 Georgian constitutional crisis South Ossetia cooperated with Georgian authorities and crossed the Georgian-South Ossetian border and arrested two anti-Georgian Dream protesters in Kvemo Nikozi, holding them in a prison in Tskhinvali, for attempting to "organize a channel for the illegal transfer across the South Ossetian-Georgian border of Vladimir Anzorovich Mamardashvili, a serviceman of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation born in 1999, who had deserted from the zone of special military operation.”[27]