2025 Australian federal election

At the previous election in May 2022, the Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese, formed government after nine years in opposition, winning 77 seats in the House of Representatives, enough for a two-seat majority.

On 1 April 2023, Labor's Mary Doyle won the 2023 Aston by-election following the resignation of sitting Liberal MP Alan Tudge.

The result was considered a major upset and marked the first time that an incumbent government had won a seat from the Opposition since the 1920 Kalgoorlie by-election.

In May 2023, incumbent Liberal National MP Stuart Robert resigned, triggering another by-election, this time in the seat of Fadden on the Gold Coast.

The seat was won by Liberal National candidate Cameron Caldwell, keeping the composition of the parliament unchanged.

[7] November also saw Dave Sharma return to parliament, this time as a Liberal Senator, after the resignation of party veteran Marise Payne.

Party-compositional changes occurred when Senator Tammy Tyrrell quit the Jacqui Lambie Network to sit as an independent on 28 March 2024, and Labor senator Fatima Payman left the party and joined the crossbench as an independent in July 2024, citing disagreement with the party's position concerning the Israel-Gaza conflict.

The 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum featured prominently in political discourse during the first half of the parliamentary term.

First proposed in the 2017 Uluru Statement from the Heart, an Indigenous Voice to Parliament was supported by the Labor Party as part of its 2022 election platform.

Newly elected Country Liberal Party Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, who succeeded Leeser as Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians, took on a prominent role in the 'No' campaign.

[14][15] Climate change also remained a prominent issue, partly due to the impact of natural disasters, including the 2022 south eastern Australia floods and the 2023–24 Australian bushfire season, which led to seven deaths and ten deaths respectively, as well as Cyclone Jasper, which caused significant property damage in Far North Queensland in December 2023.

Changes to government infrastructure included: the establishment of the National Anti-Corruption Commission in July 2023; the launch of the Housing Australia Future Fund in November 2023;[16] the replacement of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal with the Administrative Review Tribunal in October 2024; and the passage of the Online Safety Amendment Bill in November 2024.

[17][18] The Australian Electoral Commission is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new House of Representatives, to determine the number of members to which each State and Territory is entitled.

Since campaigns are for a minimum of 33 days, as of 18 February 2025[update], the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is Saturday, 29 March 2025.

The constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:[40][41] On 5 September 2024, during former leader of the Labor Party and current Minister for National Disability Insurance Scheme and Government Services Bill Shorten's announcement of his impending resignation, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese suggested that he may schedule the election to be held at a date later than Shorten's departure from Parliament in February 2025, while noting that the election is due by May 2025.

[48][49] Which would be around the same time Scott Morrison called the 2022 Australian federal election[50] In early January 2025, both Albanese and Dutton made public appearances interpreted by the media as "unofficial" campaign launches.

[51] Dutton gave a speech in Melbourne where he launched the Liberal party slogan for the campaign, "Let's get Australia back on track", and focused on the topics of nuclear power, housing, and immigration.

[52] The seats of Hinkler (Queensland) and Maribyrnong (Victoria) will be vacant at the federal election following the resignation of Keith Pitt (Nationals) and Bill Shorten (Labor) on 19 and 20 January 2025 respectively, and no by-elections will be held for the seats owing to their proximity to the general election.

Local regression graph of polls conducted since the 2022 election
Local regression graph of polls conducted since the 2022 election