Air travel demand reduction
[12] According to a study, the attainment of the 1.5–2 °C global temperature goal necessitates substantial demand reductions in the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight, and industry, should large-scale negative emissions not be realized.
[13] According to the IMAGE model used to project scenarios aimed at limiting global temperature increases to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, it is suggested that achieving deep decarbonization within the aviation sector within the specified timeframe is contingent upon a reduction in air travel in certain markets.
[14] The significant challenges of sustainable aviation fuel expansion, including food security, local community impacts, and land use issues, underscore the importance of simultaneous demand reduction efforts.
[18] A study projected a potential reduction of "transport direct CO2 emissions by around 50% in the end of the century compared to the baseline" via combined behavioral factors.
[11] According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, "the greatest Avoid potential" in demand-side mitigation, which consists of Avoid-Shift-Improve (ASI) options, "comes from reducing long-haul aviation and providing short-distance low-carbon urban infrastructure".
[10] It lists the following related mobility measures:[10] It found that socio-cultural factors promoting a preference for train travel over long-haul flights have the potential to reduce aviation greenhouse gas emissions by 10% to 40% by 2050.
The study concluded that voluntary approaches alone would be insufficient, emphasizing the need for a diverse policy mix to promote behavioral change in public flying habits.
[17] The response of governments "has been to encourage voluntary public behaviour change towards lower carbon lifestyles; an approach that has failed to gain traction in the context of discretionary tourist air travel".
In the 21st century, several governments, organisations and companies have imposed restrictions and even prohibitions on short-haul flights, stimulating or pressuring travellers to opt for more environmentally friendly means of transportation, especially trains.
Not considering complementary concurrent measures, another study estimated that air traffic could be reduced by 25% if high-speed rail were available between all major cities.
[30] A study suggests that a stronger demand for medium- to long-haul air transport is the main driver of the tourism industry's increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
[31] It "strongly recommended" that future research examines "impacts of specific policies aimed at reducing the growth of tourism transport demand for long- and medium-haul travel based on the adoption of a more holistic approach and the inclusion of economic aspects in a more systematic manner".
[21][further explanation needed] (e.g. see standard of living or life activities, interpersonal attraction, social norm, and motivations for travel) The failure of voluntary policy-independent changes has been partly explained by "contemporary neoliberal western lifestyles" which encourage "unrestrained consumption" of the socioeconomic system's products.
[42] Moreover, a review finds that if the media stops "uncritical reporting on technology 'solutions'", this would raise feelings of responsibility and if it does "not accept advertisement for air travel", this could reduce demand.
[17] A study outlines potential decision-making or psychological reactions by air travelers "feeling accountable for emissions", including cognitive dissonance.
[21] There are organizations that campaign for targets-based demand management interventions such as removing "the considerable tax breaks the aviation industry receives, through not paying VAT or fuel duty" or "airport expansion" such as UK's AirportWatch[37][44] and the global Stay Grounded.
It can also alter incentives for top-down decisions including consumer demand and raise expectations for reciprocity as collectively "We punish free riders who don't do their part and reward those who chip in", which could co-trigger some level of further action, for instance from the industry.
[43] The Fridays for Future movement prompted "debates regarding the desirability and justifiability of air travel, with evidence of [some subsequent] avoidance and substitution".
[52][53][54][55] According to Sodha, "rationing everyone's flights" – an "individual cap on air travel, that people can trade with each other" – could play a role in climate change mitigation.
[72] Stefan Gössling of the Western Norway Research Institute estimates 1% of the world population emits half of commercial aviation's CO2, while close to 90% does not fly in a given year.
