[90][91][92] The issue of exclaves/enclaves is another border-related issue; there is an exclave called Artsvashen which is formally part of Soviet-era Armenia but controlled by and situated entirely within the current Republic of Azerbaijan; likewise, there are 4 Azerbaijani exclave villages of Karki, Yukhari Askipara, Barxudarlı and Sofulu that were formally part of Soviet-era Azerbaijan but are controlled by and situated entirely within the current Republic of Armenia.
[8] According to International Crisis Group, these new positions clearly give Azerbaijan an advantage if fighting resumes since they encircle several Armenian villages and overlook the main road to Syunik which is considered "a lifeline for the country's communication's routes" to both Iran and Nagorno-Karabakh.
[82][90][80] Azerbaijan has not withdrawn its troops from internationally recognised Armenian territory despite calls to do so by the European Parliament, United States[134] and France – the latter two which comprise two of three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group.
[citation needed] Azerbaijan claims that its forces did not cross into Armenia and merely took up positions that were inaccessible in winter months, adding that the border between the two countries was never formally demarcated following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
[161][162][163] On 14 July, the Armenian defence ministry stated that the Azerbaijani engineers tried to advance their military positions near Yeraskh in the Nakhchivan section of the Armenia–Azerbaijan border, and clashes erupted.
And Zangezur is the land of our ancestors, and we are on our territory.On 23 July 2021, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence stated that one of its soldiers was killed by Armenian sniper fire in Kalbajar District near the Armenia–Azerbaijan border.
[170] On 28 July 2021, the Human Rights Defender of Armenia reported about intensive firing from the Azerbaijani side between 03:30 and 03:40 targeting civilian buildings in the villages of Verin Shorzha and Saradeghy in the Gegharkunik Province.
[54][183] On 27 August 2021, the Armenian Human Rights Defender reported that Azerbaijani troops had targeted Kut village: "Elderly people and children were in the yard at the time of the shooting.
These EU officials called the military operation launched by Azerbaijan on 16 November 2021 "the worst violation to date of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement" and "condemn[ed] any attempts at "borderisation", as observed since the incursion of Azerbaijani troops into Armenian territory.
[213] Azerbaijani President Aliyev later directly referred to the invasion in a speech, making irredentist statements about Armenian territory and confirming that Azerbaijan forces now control strategic highground in the area:[230] "As a result of this [September 2022] military operation, our historical cities are now in front of our eyes through visual observation.
[235] On 6 October 2022, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev met at the first European Political Community summit in Prague in an attempt to resolve the long running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the recent Armenia–Azerbaijan border crisis.
[243] The French Foreign Ministry issued a statement: "Armenia's territorial integrity must be respected and Azerbaijani forces occupying positions on the Armenian side of the line of contact must withdraw in order to prevent future incidents and preserve the foundations of a lasting peace in the region.
[250] On 3 September, during an interview, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that it was a strategic mistake for Armenia to solely rely on Russia to guarantee its security.
Pashinyan stated, "Moscow has been unable to deliver and is in the process of winding down its role in the wider South Caucasus region" and "the Russian Federation cannot meet Armenia's security needs.
[252][253] Four Armenian soldiers were killed and one wounded on 13 February around the village of Nerkin Hand (Syunik), an area from which Azerbaijan previously had seized territory during its September 2022 attacks.
[85] The agreement was welcomed by the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken,[261] President of the European Council Charles Michel,[262] on behalf of the UN Secretary-General António Guterres, his spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric.
[299][300] On 8 March, it was reported that the only gas pipeline leading from Armenia to the Armenian-inhabited enclave of Artsakh was damaged, as tension spiked in the region following the launch of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The international community reacted quickly, with Russia accusing Azerbaijan of breaking the fragile ceasefire and the European Union urging an immediate cessation of hostilities.
[317] The United States is concerned by recent developments along the international border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, including the detention of several Armenian soldiers by Azerbaijani forces.
"[363][364][365] Commenting on Azerbaijan's May 2021 incursion, Eurasianet noted "while those [Soviet-era] maps were not meant to strictly delineate an international border, they do all appear to show that most of Sev Lake is in Armenian territory, which would mean an [Azerbaijani] attempt to surround it would be an infiltration.
[2] Laurence Broers, South Caucasus programme director at London-based peacebuilding organization Conciliation Resources, wrote "Azerbaijan's attack demonstrated the potential for Armenia to be cut in two, given it is a mere 40 kilometres (25 miles) across at its narrowest point.
[377] Joint statement on 17 November 2021 by the Chair of the Delegation for relations with the South Caucasus, Marina Kaljurand, the European Parliament's Standing Rapporteur on Armenia Andrey Kovatchev and the European Parliament's Standing Rapporteur on Azerbaijan, Željana Zovko called the military operation launched by Azerbaijan on 16 November 2021 the worst violation to-date since ceasefire agreement, condemning any attempts at "borderisation", as observed since the incursion of Azerbaijani troops into Armenian territory on 12 May 2021.
[48] According to the geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor, "Azerbaijan remains unlikely to launch a large-scale military operation to seize large swaths of new territory in Nagorno-Karabakh or Armenia, as less costly methods can enable Baku to maintain progress toward its goals.
"[387][156] Neil Hauer, a journalist specializing in the Caucasus points out that Azerbaijan's September 2022 invasion of Armenia occurred only a few days after Russia's forces experienced military setbacks in Ukraine's Kharkiv region and the "CSTO was exposed as a paper tiger.
"[223] Various critics argue that the conflict is not being presented in the West in the same light as the Russian invasion of Ukraine despite the fact that Armenia is making democratic reforms against Azerbaijan's increasingly authoritarian state.
[374][223] However, political scientist, Suren Surenyants, considers it positive that European MEPs have "declared the September military actions [by Azerbaijan] an occupation and did not link this aggression with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict."
But Surenyants does not expect Azerbaijan's occupation of Armenia to end without concrete action from the international community: "Azerbaijanis are carrying out engineering work on the sovereign Armenian territory, equipping positions.
"[123] The EU has attempted to mediate a "peace agreement" between Armenia and Azerbaijan that includes a Joint Border Commission to delimit the countries' mutual boundary line.
Commenting on this, Tigran Grigoryan, a political analyst said "What I'm seeing now is an attempt by the European Union [...] to establish a victor's peace at the expense of Armenia where Armenian interests are not taken into consideration at all.
[394] Since the 2020 war, every military escalation has resulted Azerbaijani forces gaining ground, which political scientist Karena Avedissian, describes as the "creeping annexation" of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.