Confrontation analysis

Much of the theoretical background to General Rupert Smith's book The Utility of Force drew its inspiration from the theory of confrontation analysis.I am in debt to Professor Nigel Howard, whose explanation of Confrontation Analysis and Game Theory at a seminar in 1998 excited my interest.

Our subsequent discussions helped me to order my thoughts and the lessons I had learned into a coherent structure with the result that, for the first time, I was able to understand my experiences within a theoretical model which allowed me to use them furtherConfrontation analysis can also be used in a decision workshop as structure to support role-playing[3] for training, analysis and decision rehearsal.

[7] This represents an interaction between the Bosnian Serbs and the United Nations forces over the safe areas.

It has three persuasion dilemmas[8] in that the Bosnian Serbs are not going to do the three things they want them to (not attack the enclaves, withdraw the heavy weapons and not take hostages).

It also has a rejection dilemma[9] in that the Bosnian Serbs do not believe they will actually use the air strikes, as they think the UN will submit to their position, for fear of having hostages taken.

The card tables are isomorphic to game theory models, but are not built with the aim of finding a solution.

Instead, the aim is to find the dilemmas facing characters and so help to predict how they will change the table itself.

Screenshot illustrating the use of confrontation analysis in a role play written by Professor Nigel Howard in a computer-aided role play depicting the Siege of Sarajevo
Screenshot illustrating the use of confrontation analysis in a computer-aided role play depicting the Siege of Sarajevo . The software was written by Professor Nigel Howard for General Rupert Smith in 1996.
An interaction as a sequence of confrontations where the card table [ 5 ] changes as the parties struggle to eliminate their dilemmas [ 1 ]
Initial Card Table: [ 5 ] The UN threatens to use air strikes, but is not believed by the Bosnian Serbs: The UN has three dilemmas [ 1 ] The Bosnians have none
Second Card Table: [ 5 ] The UN eliminated the Bosnian "hostage" card and brought in an additional, credible "Artillery" card, changing the situation in their favour: The Bosnian Serbs now have two persuasion dilemmas [ 8 ] and two rejection dilemmas [ 9 ]
Final Card Table: [ 5 ] The final situation. The Bosnian Serbs modified their position to eliminate their dilemmas. This involved accepting their initial goals as unobtainable