[4] While the tradition remains popular in the 21st century, studies have found no consistent association between a groundhog seeing its shadow and the subsequent arrival time of spring-like weather.

[8] In folk religion, various traditional superstitions continue to be linked with the holiday, although this was discouraged by the Reformed Churches in the 16th century.

[b][15][16] The standard term for "groundhog" was grun'daks (from German dachs), with the regional variant in York County being grundsau, a direct translation of the English name, according to a 19th-century book on the dialect.

[c][18] In The Thomas R. Brendle Collection of Pennsylvania German Folklore, Brendle preserved the following lore from the local Pennsylvania German dialect: Wann der Dachs sei Schadde seht im Lichtmess Marye, dann geht er widder in's Loch un beleibt noch sechs Woche drin.

Wann Lichtmess Marye awwer drieb is, dann bleibt der dachs haus un's watt noch enanner Friehyaahr.

[21] Victor Hugo, in "Les Misérables", (1864) discusses the day as follows: "...it was the second of February, that ancient Candlemas-day whose treacherous sun, the precursor of six weeks of cold, inspired Matthew Laensberg with the two lines, which have deservedly become classic: 'Qu'il luise ou qu'il luiserne, L'ours rentre en sa caverne.'

[22][d] The German version, with the introduction of the badger (or other beasts), was an expansion of a simpler tradition that if the weather was sunny and clear on Candlemas Day, people expected winter to continue.

[14] The simpler version is summarized in the English (Scots dialect) couplet that runs "If Candlemas is fair and clear / There'll be twa winters in the year",[e][f] with equivalent phrases in French and German.

The earliest mention of Groundhog Day is an entry on February 2, 1840, in the diary of James L. Morris of Morgantown, in Pennsylvania Dutch Country, according to the book on the subject by Don Yoder.

[36][24] Clymer Freas (1867–1942)[m] who was city editor at the Punxsutawney Spirit is credited as the "father" who conceived the idea of "Groundhog Day".

[41][42] The "hunt" portion of it became increasingly a ritualized formality, because the practical procurement of meat had to occur well ahead of time for marinating.

[46] The largest Groundhog Day celebration is held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, where crowds as large as 40,000 gather each year,[47] nearly eight times the year-round population of the town which is 5,769 as of 2020.

[50] Fans of Punxsutawney Phil awaited his arrival starting at 6:00 am, thanks to a live stream provided by Visit Pennsylvania.

[59] Chuckles, a self-proclaimed woodchuck, has been providing the regional weather prognostication in Manchester, Connecticut since 1968 at the Lutz Children's Museum.

An analysis of historical weather data and Chuckles' previous predictions reveals he offers a 60% accuracy rate, higher than most other weather-predicting animals nationwide.

Notably, in 2024, Chuckles predicted an early spring (alongside Punxatawney Phil and others) but Winter Storm Birch followed soon after, prompting the local police department of Guilford, Connecticut to issue a warrant and dubbing the rodent "Chuck the Liar".

[77][78] Quigley, of The Hamptons (resident of the Save the Animals Rescue Foundation[79][80]), predicts at Quogue Village Fire Department.

[83] In 2009, Chuck bit then-NYC-Mayor Mike Bloomberg, prompting zoo officials to quietly replace him with his daughter Charlotte.

In 2014, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio, famously dropped Charlotte during the ceremony, visibly disturbing many of the children present for the event.

[96] This title taken in response to the Punxsutawney Spirit's 1952 newspaper article describing Sun Prairie as a "remote two cow village buried somewhere in the wilderness..."[97] In 2015, Jimmy the Groundhog bit the ear of Mayor Jon Freund[98] and the story quickly went viral worldwide.

[116][117] A study also shows that in Quebec, the marmot and groundhog (siffleux) are regarded as Candlemas weather-predicting beasts in some scattered spots, but the bear is the more usual animal.

[135] Canadian meteorologist Cindy Day has estimated that Nova Scotia's "Shubenacadie Sam" has an accuracy rate of about 45%, compared to 25% for Wiarton Willy in Ontario.

[137] Part of the problem with pinning down an accuracy rate for the groundhog is that what constitutes an early spring is not clearly defined.

[138] Another challenge has been the haphazard nature of Groundhog Day recordkeeping, making it difficult to find reliable historical prognostications.

[140] One theory states that the groundhog naturally comes out of hibernation in central Pennsylvania in early February because of the increasing average temperature.

The idea of "spring arriving early" is a highly subjective notion which could arguably refer to almost anything, from several days to several weeks.

[citation needed] In Croatia and Serbia, Orthodox Christians have a tradition that on February 2 (Candlemas) or February 15 (Sretenje, The Meeting of the Lord), the bear will awaken from winter dormancy, and if it sees (meets) its own shadow in this sleepy and confused state, it will get scared and go back to sleep for an additional 40 days, thus prolonging the winter.

[145] The holiday gained more prominence, particularly internationally, with the release of the 1993 comedy film Groundhog Day with Bill Murray and Andie MacDowell.

Groundhog prognosticator Pardon-Me Pete's shadow is manipulated by Jack Frost to buy more time to use his wintery magic to protect January Junction from the villain.

[citation needed] Thig an nathair as an toll / Là donn Brìde, / Ged robh trì troighean dhen t-sneachd / Air leac an làir.