Oil reserves in Saudi Arabia

[5] In 2000, the US Geological Survey estimated that remaining undiscovered oil reserves in Saudi Arabia had a probability-weighted average of 90 Gbbl.

This has made independent verification of the Kingdom's reserves and resources virtually impossible, leaving various commentators and the world at-large to rely upon speculation and indirect indicators.

[17] In a 2004 study, Matthew Simmons analyzed 200 technical papers on Saudi reserves by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and concluded that Saudi Arabia's oil production faced near term decline, and that it would not be able to consistently produce more than 2004 levels, when production of crude oil and lease condensate averaged 9.10 million barrels per day.

Overall, in the nine years since his 2004 prediction (2005-2013), Saudi crude oil and lease condensate production has averaged 9.20 million barrels per day, just slightly higher than 2004 levels.

The results of this effort indicate that the proved reserves in the Kingdom are likely proximal to, and even somewhat larger than, previous official estimates.

Khalid Al-Falih outlined the extensive effort in his remarks, stating that the process began in August 2016 and continued for almost 2+1⁄2 years.

DeGolyer and MacNaughton personnel (more than 60 geophysicists, petrophysicists, geologists, simulation engineers, reserves engineering specialists, and economists) built the detailed independent evaluation using the extensive raw database from each of the wells and reservoirs in the evaluated reservoirs, applying their own techniques and methodologies to reach the resulting independent estimate of proved reserves.

For example, Ellen Wald, global energy policy analyst, told CNBC that “Whether they have 260 or 266 billion barrels isn't really the issue,” she said.

“The point is that they had DeGolyer and MacNaughton, which is a very respected source, do an audit…I think it's designed to put to rest the controversy that's always plagued them since the publication of Twilight in the Desert.” While Venezuela has reported "proven reserves" topping those reported by Saudi Arabia, industry analyst Robert Rapier has suggested that these numbers reflect variables driven by changes in crude oil market prices—indicating that the percentage of Venezuela's oil that qualifies as Venezuela's "proven" reserves may be driven up or down by the global market price for crude oil.