In the runup to the 2025 snap election, four of the eight main parties represented in the Bundestag were at risk of failing to pass the 5% electoral threshold, thus placing the actual outcome in significant uncertainty.
Seats in the Bundestag are allocated to party lists that either pass the "five percent hurdle" of federally valid second votes, or win at least three constituencies.
In the 2021 German federal election, this granted Die Linke (The Left) full proportional representation as it won three constituencies despite receiving 4.9% of second-ballot votes.
Polling around 5% are the Free Democratic Party (FDP) that was part of the "Traffic Light Coalition" whose collapse led to the snap election, Die Linke, and the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) which split off from The Left in 2023.
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