The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.
The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis.
Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.
In these cases, the margins used are predictions (by Antony Green) based on the new boundaries following redistributions in New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia.
The names listed in the tables refer to the currently elected members.