A second build-up began in October 2021, this time with more soldiers and with deployments on new fronts; by December over 100,000 Russian troops were massed around Ukraine on three sides, including Belarus from the north and Crimea from the south.

[45] The plan involved fomenting widespread unrest using pro-Russian agents on the ground, and then orchestrating uprisings that would announce rigged referendums about joining Russia, similar to the one that took place in Crimea on 16 March 2014.

[63][64][non-primary source needed] Despite being recognised as an independent country since 1991,[65][66] Ukraine continued to be perceived by Russian leadership as part of its sphere of influence due to its status as a former USSR constituent republic.

[72][73] Following months of Euromaidan protests, on 21 February 2014, pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and parliamentary opposition leaders signed an agreement calling for an early election.

[81][82][83][84][85] This was followed by Russia's invasion and subsequent annexation of Crimea in March 2014[86] and the beginning of the Donbas war in April,[87] with the creation of the Russia-backed quasi-states of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.

[93] On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved a new national security strategy for the country, signaling Ukraine's intent to foster a stronger relationship with NATO "with the aim of membership in [the group].

[133] Amongst the measures enacted by Zelenskyy were sanctions on Opposition Platform — For Life party People's Deputies Viktor Medvedchuk and Taras Kozak, and a national ban on multiple pro-Russian television channels, including 112 Ukraine, NewsOne, and ZIK.

[138] On 3 March, Suspilne claimed separatists from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported they had been granted permission to use "preemptive fire for destruction" on Ukrainian military positions.

[153] Nearly a week later on 30 March, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Ruslan Khomchak revealed intelligence reports suggesting a military buildup by Russia close to Ukraine in preparations for the Zapad Exercises.

[160][161] Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed the military movements "[were] not of any concern" for neighbouring countries, and that the decisions for deployment were made to address matters of Russia's "national security".

[168] On 5 April, Ukrainian representatives of the Joint Centre of Control and Coordination (JCCC) sent a note to the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine regarding pro-Russian intentions to falsify the accusations.

[183] On the night of 14 to 15 April 2021, a naval confrontation took place in the Sea of Azov, 40 kilometres (25 mi) from the Kerch Strait, between three Ukrainian Gyurza-M-class artillery boats and six vessels from the Coast Guard of the Border Service of the FSB.

[118] Members of the U.S. intelligence community began discussing the serious potential for a Russian invasion during the spring and fall of 2021, noting the massive continued deployment of military assets and logistics far beyond those used for standard exercises.

"[197] In early November 2021, reports of Russian military buildups prompted American officials to warn their European allies that Russia could be considering a potential invasion of Ukraine, while a number of experts and commentators believed that Putin was seeking a stronger hand for further negotiations with the West.

[204] On the same day, in an interview on Russia-1, Putin denied any possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, labelling the notions as "alarmist", while simultaneously accusing NATO of undergoing unscheduled naval drills at the Black Sea.

[214][215][216] On 3 December 2021 Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov, spoke of the possibility of a "large-scale escalation" by Russia during the end of January 2022, during a session at the country's national parliament, the Verkhovna Rada.

[220] A report released in November 2023 by the international NGO Global Rights found that Russia's defense contractor began buying trucks and three 170-meter bulk carriers to transport grain in December 2021, suggesting earlier Russian planning to loot Ukraine's food supplies.

[222] By mid-January, an intelligence assessment produced by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence estimated that Russia was in its final stages of completing a military buildup at the Russo-Ukrainian border, amassing 127,000 troops in the region.

The officials anticipated that the possible launch window could start on 15 February and persist until the end of March, when extremely cold weather would freeze roads and assist in the movement of mechanised units.

[308][309][310][300] On 22 January 2022, the UK Foreign Office corroborated parts of the agent's account, stating that Russia was preparing a plan to "install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv as it considers whether to invade and occupy Ukraine,"[311] with Yevhen Murayev, a former member of the Ukrainian parliament, alleged to be one of Moscow's potential candidates.

"[322] Several international organisations, including the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR),[323][324] OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine,[325][326][327] and the Council of Europe found no evidence supporting the Russian claims.

"[331][332] In preparation for a possible renewed Russian invasion, the Ukrainian Ground Forces announced a meeting in April 2021 regarding territorial defences to strengthen and protect the nation's borders and critical facilities, and to combat sabotage and reconnaissance groups in southern Ukraine.

[343] The U.S. provided FGM-148 Javelin antitank missiles, anti-armour artillery (including M141 Bunker Defeat Munitions),[344] heavy machine guns, small arms, ammunition, secure radio systems, medical equipment and spare parts.

[345][346] U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley threatened US support for an anti-Russian insurgency within Ukraine, similar to the CIA's assistance to anti-Soviet mujahideen rebels in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

[436] On 23 February, an unidentified senior U.S. defense official was quoted by news media as saying that "80 percent" of Russian forces assigned and arrayed along Ukraine's border were ready for battle and that a ground incursion could commence at any moment.

[464] Ukraine fulfilled Russia's condition for a meeting at Paris and decided to withdraw a controversial draft law on the reintegration of Crimea and Donbas from the Ukrainian parliament, as contradicting the Minsk peace agreements.

One of the topics discussed was the crisis over Ukraine, the Russian side issuing a statement that said Putin highlighted the fact that it was "NATO that was undertaking dangerous attempts to develop Ukrainian territory and increase its potential along [Russia's] borders".

[474][475] The following day, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov addressed the question about what Russia expected in response to its "security guarantees" proposals by saying that "we will not allow anyone to drag out our initiatives in endless discussions.

If a constructive response does not follow within a reasonable time and the West continues its aggressive course, Russia will be forced to take every necessary action to ensure a strategic balance and to eliminate unacceptable threats to our security.

[500] Kenya's ambassador, Martin Kimani, compared Putin's move to colonialism and said "We must complete our recovery from the embers of dead empires in a way that does not plunge us back into new forms of domination and oppression.