A safe seat is an electoral district which is regarded as fully secure, for either a certain political party, or the incumbent representative personally or a combination of both.
In countries with parliamentary government, parties often try to ensure that their most talented or influential politicians are selected to contest these seats – in part to ensure that these politicians can stay in parliament, regardless of the specific election result, and that they can concentrate on ministerial roles without needing to spend too much effort on managing electorate-specific issues.
The selection process can see the incumbent party, untroubled by the need to have a representative that must appeal to a broader electorate, take the opportunity to choose a candidate from the more ideological reaches of the membership.
The retirement or death of a popular sitting member may make a seat more competitive, as the accrued personal vote of a long-serving parliamentarian will sometimes have resisted countervailing demographic trends.
For instance, in Berwick-upon-Tweed, with the retirement of the popular incumbent Alan Beith, the seat was no longer safe for the Liberal Democrats.
The incumbent, Neil Hamilton, had been mired in controversy, and was defeated by the veteran BBC journalist Martin Bell, who was aided by the decision of the main opposition parties (Labour and the Liberal Democrats) not to field candidates.
If a party is strong enough nationwide to gather representations in all subdivisions, the top candidate(s) on each list tend to be very safely elected to parliament.
Marginals are generally concentrated in the middle-class outer-suburban areas of Australia's larger state capitals, which therefore decide most Australian federal elections.
[4] Examples include: In Fiji, prior to the December 2006 military coup, elections were held under the 1997 Constitution, which allotted 46 of the House of Representatives' 71 seats on an ethnic basis.
[18][19][20][21] The new Constitution adopted in 2013 abolished constituency representation altogether, in favour of party list seat allocation based on nationwide results.
In this case: The northern, east coast, and rural constituencies have been safe seats for the Pan Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) and Perikatan Nasional (PN).
For Barisan Nasional, another major partner in the government, the southern states and Sabah are the safe seats for the coalition.
In New Zealand, many rural electorates, and those based in wealthy suburban areas, notably the North Shore and eastern suburbs of Auckland, are considered safe seats for the National Party.
[22] By contrast, inner-city and poorer suburban electorates such as those in South Auckland are typically safe Labour seats.
Meanwhile, in the 2023 election, Labour lost many seats that they had held for decades prior such as Mount Roskill, Rongotai and Wellington Central.
From the 1960s, parliamentary constituencies in Gyeongsang region, especially Northern Gyeongbuk and Western Gyeongnam, are considered as safe seats for People Power Party.
City centres in Southeastern Gyeongnam, Southern Gyeogbuk and parliamentary constituencies in rural Gangwon, Chungbuk, Chungnam and Gyeonggi and affluent villages in such as Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu, Songpa-gu and Yongsan-gu of Seoul, Haeundae-gu, Nam-gu, Dongnae-gu and Suyeong-gu of Busan are also considered as safe seats for People Power Party.
On 6 April 2010, the Electoral Reform Society (ERS) estimated that going into the 2010 general election, of the 650 constituencies, 382 (59%) were safe seats.
The safest seat in the 2017 general election was Liverpool Walton, where Labour received 86% of the vote, giving them a 77% majority over the second-placed Conservatives (at 9%).
The seat of Sheffield Hallam was notable in the run up to the 2015 general election, when opinion polls were forecasting a Labour gain despite the incumbent MP, Nick Clegg, being the party leader and Deputy Prime Minister.
[34] The Cook Partisan Voting Index rates congressional districts on how strongly they lean toward either major party.
[35] Other examples of a safe seat for the Democrats is California's 11th congressional district, which currently covers most of the city of San Francisco.