[1][2][3] In the introduction of his first edition published in 2001, Gordon G. Chang, an American lawyer, predicted the following scenario: The end of the modern Chinese state is near.

[4] Based on the perceived inefficiency of state-run enterprises and the inability of the Chinese Communist Party to build an open democratic society, Chang argued that the hidden non-performing loans of the "Big Four" Chinese state banks would likely bring down China's financial system and its government, along with the entire country.

"[3] In 2002, Julia Lovell of The Observer stated that although China's entry to the World Trade Organization could provide Western investors with many new opportunities, Chang's book "marshalled ample evidence to dampen such expectations.

Many of its state industries are virtually bankrupt; its banking system sits on a mountain of unrecognized bad debts; its agriculture is primitive; pollution is out of control; and government interference and corruption are killing off a number of new business ventures...Academic Roland Boer describes the book as an example of the "China doomer" approach to historical nihilism.

[9]: 235 Peter Thal Larsen writes in Reuters that the book "is now mostly referred to as a reminder of the dangers of making overly specific forecasts about the country’s future.