On April 25, the Storm Prediction Center first noted the potential for organized severe weather across the lower Missouri River Valley as an upper-level trough ejected eastward across the United States.

Given the strength of the surface low-pressure area progressing across Nebraska, forecasters noted the potential for dewpoints in excess of 60 °F (15 °C) to encroach as far north as southern Iowa, though the degree of destabilization (CAPE) was unclear given the coverage of cloud cover.

[5] By the afternoon, widespread thunderstorm activity began to develop near the intersection of the dryline and warm front across northeastern Kansas, northwestern Missouri, and southwestern Iowa.

[7] Discrete or embedded supercells moved across Missouri, Illinois, Tennessee, and Kentucky during the pre-dawn hours, where wind shear remained very favorable for tornadoes given low-level storm relative helicity in excess of 500 m2/s2.

[10] The powerful upper-level trough shifted eastward, now encompassing portions of the Ohio River Valley and Northeast in 200 mb winds greater than 100 kn (115 mph; 185 km/h).

[11] While a line of pre-frontal convection was ongoing during the early morning hours, this activity was expected to weaken as it encountered stable air across the Appalachian Mountains.