Tornado outbreak of February 28 – March 1, 2017

Fueled by the combination of ample instability, strong wind shear, and rich low-level moisture, the event led to 71 confirmed tornadoes and thousands of other non-tornadic severe weather reports.

[1] The threat level was maintained for Arkansas and surrounding states in the subsequent outlook, while a new risk area was introduced from northern Louisiana to southwestern Kentucky valid for March 1.

[3] The next day, an Enhanced risk was introduced portions of the Mid-South and Ohio River Valley in anticipation of a widespread damaging wind event on March 1.

"[5] As the storm system spread east on March 1, a Moderate risk was briefly added across central Kentucky and middle Tennessee into the Cumberland Gap.

In the warm sector ahead of the cold front, rich low-level moisture surged northward, with dewpoints of 65–70 °F (18–21 °C) observed across Texas and Louisiana.

Although a strong subtropical jet stream allowed a widespread cirrus plume to overspread the risk area, limiting surface heating in some locations, mid-level CAPE values were still expected to reach upward of 1500–2000 J/kg.

Combined with ample moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient destabilization, effective bulk shear near or over 80 mph (130 km/h), was expected to yield storm relative helicity values in excess of 300–400 m2/s2.

However, the driving mechanism for convection across the risk area was still somewhat uncertain given the confluence of a weak capping inversion, warm-air advection, and negligible ascent.

The first EF4 tornado of 2017 began at 01:51 UTC on March 1 (7:51 p.m. CST on February 28) to the west of Perryville in Perry County, Missouri, where it snapped the trunks of several hardwood trees and caused EF1 damage to homes.

The tornado then continued to the northeast and intensified at an exceptional rate, causing EF4 damage as it impacted a small subdivision of large homes on the west side of I-55.

A residential subdivision along Moore Drive in this area sustained devastating damage, with many homes completely leveled, a few of which were swept clean from their foundations.

Despite the high-quality construction, the overall context surrounding this home was not indicative of an intensity greater than mid-range EF4, and maximum winds along this segment of the path were estimated to have peaked at 185 mph (298 km/h).

The tornado took on a multiple-vortex structure at this point, as evidenced by multiple distinct ground striations in nearby fields, and also attained its peak width of 0.6 miles (0.97 km).

The tornado passed south of Campbell Lake and then moved into Franklin County, where it dramatically re-intensified to high-end EF3 strength as it crossed IL 184.

With a total path length of 53.47 miles (86.05 km), it was the longest-tracked tornado in the county warning area of the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service office in 36 years.

[97][98] A tornado touched down just northeast of Carmi in White County, Illinois at 03:54 UTC on March 1 (9:54 p.m. CST), snapping the trunks of hardwood trees at EF1 strength.

A residence was moved about 3 feet (1.0 yd) off its foundation, with a majority of its second floor swept away, a four-wheeler flipped upside down, a refrigerator tossed atop the rubble, and an associated garage completely destroyed.

As the tornado passed north of Poseyville into Gibson County, wooden power poles were snapped and large amounts of debris was strewn throughout a treeline along SR 165.

The tornado weakened as it affected areas just north of Fort Branch, but still caused considerable high-end EF1 roof damage to several homes and downed many trees.

A metal building had part of its roof ripped off and walls pushed in along South County Road 550 East, while a final pocket of EF2 damage was noted farther along the path just west of I-69, where a barn was completely destroyed.

The final observed damage was to a barn south of Oakland City that had half of its roof torn off and gable blown out at 04:45 UTC (10:45 p.m. CST), marking an end to the tornado's 44.6 miles (71.8 km) path.

The Storm Prediction Center's 20z tornado outlook on February 28, 2017
High-end EF3 damage to a farmhouse to the southwest of Christopher, Illinois