Occurring just days after a deadly and more significant event across similar areas just a week prior, this particular outbreak led to 63 tornadoes within a 91⁄2-hour period as a quasi-linear convective system and discrete supercell thunderstorms traversed the region.

On March 2, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighted the forecast evolution of an upper-level trough and the potential for severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains and the lower Mississippi River Valley valid for day 5/March 6.

[5] Accounting for increased confidence in supercellular thunderstorm development ahead of a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS), a small Enhanced risk of severe weather was indicated across portions of northwestern Arkansas and southern Missouri during the afternoon hours of March 5.

"[7] On the heels of a significant tornado outbreak that affected much of the same areas the week before, this event came to fruition as a synoptic upper-level trough tilted northwest to southeast from the Alaska Panhandle into the Four Corners region.

[8] Despite widespread low-level clouds in the warm sector, limiting the amount of atmospheric instability,[9] mid-level Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values were expected to rise to around 2000 J/kg across the western Ozarks and up to 500 J/kg as far north as north-central Minnesota.

Partially modified Gulf moisture, with dewpoints in the 60s F across the Enhanced risk and 50s F farther north, was expected to combine with steep mid-level lapse rates of 7–7.5 C/km to destabilize the environment.