Zapad 2013

The comprehensive exercise, involving all branches of the Russian military and between 10,000 and 90,000 soldiers (estimates vary), was officially described as counterterrorist, but international observers concluded it was a preparation for a conventional war.

[1][2][3][4] Official estimates for the number of troops participating were about 10,000; but international observers suggested it could have been as high as 60,000,[2] 70,000[1] or 90,000[3] (Russia also conduced simultaneous Vzaimodeistiviye (“Mutual Action”) exercise with countries from the Collective Security Treaty Organization).

[1][6] Pauli Järvenpää [fi] concurred with that assessment, noting that puzzlingly the exercise also included simulation of a conflict with the Finnish forces (at that time, not a part of NATO).

[5] Ieva Bērziņa also agreed that there was an obvious mismatch between the official designation of the exercise as anti-terrorist and its large scale, concluding that it was a message of strategic deterrence to other countries (particularly NATO), as well as a reminder to the West that if Russia's wishes on the geopolitical arena are ignored, it is capable of enforcing them with force.

[8] Anna Maria Dyner writing for the Polish Institute of International Affairs suggested that the exercise was partially inspired by the Arab Spring and involved contingency planning in case of pro-democratic revolution in Belarus against Lukashenko, and aimed to discourage any foreign (non-Russian) intervention in such a conflict.

[9] Belarusian politician and dissent Andrej Sannikau argued that Zapad 2013 was a preparation for the 2014 annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation and War in Donbas.