2024 Brandenburg state election

Despite contrary polling showing them consistently trailing in second place, the SPD, which has governed Brandenburg since its 1990 re-establishment, remained the largest party with a five percentage point swing in its favour.

The outgoing government narrowly lost its majority as the Greens collapsed and fell short of the 5% electoral threshold, losing all their seats.

The 2019 Brandenburg state election had resulted in the formation of the third Woidke cabinet, a "Kenya" coalition of the SPD, CDU, and Greens.

[5][7] Nonetheless, the two largest populist parties – the left-wing[8] BSW[9] and the far-right AfD[10] – earned significant results, combining for precisely half of all the seats in the legislature.

Both Green MP Marie Schäffer and BVB-FW leader Péter Vida were competitive in their respective constituencies in Potsdam and Barnim, though neither ultimately won; their parties lost all of their seats as a result.

The Left failed to pass the five-percent electoral threshold and also lost its seats, marking the first time the party is not represented in a state parliament in the former East Germany.

[20] Dietmar Woidke lost his constituency seat Spree-Neiße I, which he had represented since 2009, to the AfD candidate Steffen Kubitzki by a margin of seven votes.

[21] With more than one-third of seats, AfD has a "blocking minority" (Sperrminorität) that allows it to veto certain parliamentary actions requiring a two-thirds majority, even if it is not in government.

[20] On 25 September, the joint leaders of Alliance 90/The Greens, Omid Nouripour and Ricarda Lang, announced their resignations after poor results in the three eastern state elections.

After the Greens entered all of them as part of the respective governing coalitions, it was wiped out in Brandenburg and Thuringia, while it received only 5.1% of the party-list vote in Saxony to narrowly retain representation.

[23] In a press conference at SPD headquarters in Berlin later on 23 September, Woidke announced he was inviting both BSW and CDU to begin exploratory talks.

The SPD state executive committee scheduled a meeting at the end of the month to potentially consider a recommendation to move forward with negotiations.

[26][27] On 28 October, both parties presented an exploratory paper and reached an agreement on the issue of peace, clearing the way for coalition negotiations to begin.

The coalition has a narrow majority of two seats; talks were threatened when one BSW MdL, Sven Hornauf, publicly stated he would not vote for Woidke in protest of the planned stationing of Arrow 3 missiles at the Holzdorf Air Base.

Local regression of polls conducted.
SPD's and AfD's swing by district