Codenamed the Deterrence of Aggression[note 2] by HTS, this is the first military offensive campaign launched by opposition forces in the Syrian civil war since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire.

[50][51][52] It initially began as a localised offensive targeting towns in the Idlib and Aleppo countryside, later evolving into a nationwide campaign that culminated in the toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

[62] The same day, rebels also captured the capital Damascus, toppling Bashar al-Assad's government and ending the Assad family's 53-year-long rule over the country.

[13] According to the Kyiv Post, some Islamist social media accounts said that the Idlib-based rebels received some training and other support by Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence.

[67] HTS initiated the offensive partly to disrupt regional powers' diplomatic normalization with the Assad regime and to counter escalating aerial attacks on northwestern Syria.

The group determined that Assad's international allies were strategically constrained, with Russia committed to its war in Ukraine and both Iran and Hezbollah engaged in conflict with Israel, presenting a favorable tactical opportunity.

[72][73][74] On 28 November, HTS launched an offensive on the eastern Idlib countryside, capturing the villages of Dadikh, Kafr Batikh and Sheikh Ali as well as a neighborhood in the city of Saraqib.

[75] In the latter half of the day, HTS captured the villages of Kafr Basin, Arnaz and Al-Zarba in the western Aleppo countryside, and cut off the M5 highway.

[77] Iranian state media reported that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi, who served as a senior military advisor in Syria, was killed by rebels in Aleppo.

[80][94] Concurrently on 30 November, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army located in the Euphrates Shield region of Turkish occupied northern Syria announced the start of Operation Dawn of Freedom with the objective of cutting off SDF's supply networks and establishing a corridor connecting al-Bab to Tell Rifaat.

[99] On 2 December, the SDF announced plans to evacuate Kurdish IDPs from Tel Rifaat and the Shahba Canton to SDF-held areas in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsood district and northeastern Syria.

[107][108] Opposition forces then launched a drone strike targeting pro-government military leaders near Jabal Zayn al-Abidin just north of Hama, which led to multiple deaths and injuries among their ranks.

[116] On 4 December, pro-government forces briefly counterattacked and retook the villages of Kafr'a and Maar Shuhur,[117] while the opposition advanced to the Ghab Plain, which serves as a gateway to the majority-Alawite coastal region of Syria.

[136][137] Concurrently, SDF captured the provincial capital of Deir ez-Zor from pro-Ba'athist forces, which also left the town of Palmyra in central Homs Governorate.

[55] Meanwhile, the Syrian Free Army, a different rebel group backed by the United States, took control of Palmyra in an offensive launched from the al-Tanf "deconfliction zone".

[143] In the Rif Dimashq region, pro-Assad forces withdrew from the towns of Assal al-Ward, Yabroud, Flitah, Al-Naseriyah and Artouz, while rebels came within 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) of Damascus.

[59] By the evening, pro-Assad forces had left the towns on the outskirts of Damascus, including Jaramana, Qatana, Muadamiyat al-Sham, Darayya, Al-Kiswah, Al-Dumayr and sites near the Mezzeh Air Base.

[60] Later that day, Bashar al-Assad fled the city,[145] making a stopover at the Russian-operated Khmeimim Air Base near Latakia before proceeding to Moscow where he was given asylum by the Russian government.

[146] On 16 December, the Telegram account of the Syrian presidency published a statement attributed to Assad saying that he had gone to a Russian military base in Latakia Governorate "to oversee combat operations" following the fall of Damascus but was evacuated out of the country by Russia after coming under siege from rebel forces, adding that he had no intention of resigning or going into exile.

[149] On that day, the Syrian Army command informed its officers that Assad's government had ended,[150] and Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali announced that he was ready "to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the people".

One news article noted: "The SNA, an umbrella of several armed factions, informed the SDF on Monday that it would be returning to 'a state of combat against us,' one of the sources briefing Al-Monitor said.

The sources said negotiations between the SDF and the SNA had 'failed' and that 'significant military buildups' in areas east and west of the Kurdish town of Kobani on the Turkish border were being observed.

"[182] During a meeting in Doha between Sergey Lavrov, Abbas Araghchi and Hakan Fidan, the Russian and Iranian foreign ministers both tacitly blamed Turkey for the downfall of Assad regime.

The Ukrainian HUR is also alleged to have dispatched advisors to the rebels to coordinate this offensive[65] as well as intelligence and material support to opposition forces including HTS.

The deaths of Hassan Nasrallah and much of its military leadership, combined with the redeployment of Hezbollah fighters in Syria back to Lebanon, left a large power vacuum.

[190] According to analysts, Syrian government defeats can largely be attributed to its confidence in an ultimate victory over the rebels and the lack of effort it has put in strengthening its military ranks over the four years since the Idlib ceasefire in 2020.

Pointing to the prevalence of unwilling and poorly paid young conscripts in the army, observers noted that Iran would be hesitant to provide Assad with needed ground support.

[193] Similarly, political scientist Andrey Kortunov wrote that al-Assad had failed to unite Syrians and achieve national reconciliation, comparing him to former Afghan president Ashraf Ghani, who was overthrown by the Taliban in 2021.

[194] Journalist Vitaly Ryumshin shared this comparison, but partially defended the Syrian government, arguing that the lack of reform was due to economic sanctions on the country and loss of control over the oil's resources to the United States and the Kurds.

[195] In a different view, Anton Mardasov, a Russian expert on the Middle East, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the government's collapse was not due to Western sanctions but because of al-Assad's failure in dealing with the country's problems, specifically mentioning the economic crisis, endemic corruption and nepotism and "the loss of touch with reality and thinking in the paradigm of 50 years ago".