As he did in the previous two presidential elections, Republican Donald Trump easily won Missouri in 2024, this time by an 18.4% margin.

A nigh-infallible bellwether state for the bulk of the 20th century well into the 2000s (backing the winner of all but one presidential election for a century, from 1904 to 2004, the exception being 1956 by just 0.22% and less than 4,000 votes), Missouri has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000.

It is widely understood to have lost its bellwether status when Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois failed to carry the state in either of his presidential victories, followed by Republican Donald Trump carrying it by more than 15% in all three of his election bids.

Democratic strength in Missouri is nowadays largely limited to the Kansas City and St. Louis areas, as well as the college town of Columbia.

Democrat Kamala Harris won the same jurisdictions that Joe Biden did in 2020, as did Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Obama in 2012: Jackson County, home to Kansas City; Boone County, home to Columbia; the independent city of St. Louis; and St. Louis County, which contains many of St. Louis's closest suburbs.