As a densely-populated state in the Northeast, New Jersey had backed the Democratic candidate in every presidential election subsequent to 1988, doing so consistently by double digits starting in 2008.

Harris' win marked the first time since the 2004 presidential election that the Democratic nominee won the state with a single digit margin of victory, and Republican nominee Donald Trump's 46% vote share in New Jersey is on par with George W. Bush's performance in 2004.

New Jersey also had the second-largest swing to the right from the 2020 election after neighboring New York, owing largely to poor Democratic turnout compared to 2020 and 2016.

[2] New Jersey joined most other blue and blue-leaning states such as New York, California, and Illinois in seeing significant rightward trends in 2024.

[28] The concurrent Senate race also lends this theory some legitimacy, as Kim was polling 20 points ahead of Bashaw in aggregates, but only won by 9.4%, a smaller margin than Menendez received in 2018 at 11.2%.