In 2022, Hayes pled guilty to United States Bank Secrecy Act violations and was sentenced to six months of home detention, two years of probation, and a $10 million fine.
[20] According to an article published in the Financial Insight Zambia Limited, on February 9, 2021, in their opinion Hayes' crime was that he refused to allow the CFTC to obtain the account information on Bitmex's customers.
[26][27] On February 24, 2022, Hayes, along with co-founders Benjamin Delo and Samuel Reed, and Gregory Dwyer pleaded guilty to "willfully failing to establish, implement, and maintain an anti-money laundering (“AML”) program at BitMEX."
[20] Hayes was sentenced to six months of home confinement with two years probation; he also agreed to pay a $10 million dollar fine representing his pecuniary gain from the offense.
[27] Arthur Hayes has predicted that the crypto market could experience a significant downturn following Donald Trump's inauguration as President of the United States.
Hayes believes that high expectations for pro-crypto policies under a Trump administration may not be met, leading to market disappointment[28].
Hayes believes that the limited time frame before the midterm elections restricts the ability to implement substantial policy changes, increasing the risk of a market decline.
He anticipates a "harrowing dump" in the crypto market around the time of the inauguration due to the mismatch between investor expectations and the feasibility of swift policy implementations.
Hayes expressed skepticism about the feasibility of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, a concept that has been discussed in the context of Trump's policies.