On 25 December 2024, the Embraer 190 operating the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was severely damaged by a Russian surface-to-air missile during the aircraft's approach to Grozny.

Approximately 40 minutes after takeoff, as the aircraft entered Russian airspace and neared Grozny, the crew reported losing GPS navigational aids, due to jamming.

However, after the crash, the aircraft was found to be riddled with holes in its fuselage some containing fragments of foreign metal objects, damage inconsistent with a bird strike but resembling the impact of a surface-to-air missile.

[1][2] On 26 December, Euronews reported that Azerbaijani officials had determined the plane had been hit mid-flight by a Russian missile during efforts to repel a Ukrainian drone attack on Grozny Airport.

[8] Approximately 40 minutes after takeoff, as the aircraft entered Russian airspace near Grozny, the crew reported to air traffic control that it had lost GPS navigational aids.

They were cleared to approach at 08:50 AZT (07:50 MSK, local time in Grozny), but due to the fog, the crew aborted the landing and initiated a go-around.

[64][65] Meanwhile, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev issued awards to employees of Astana's Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Mangistau Electric Grid Company and Aktau International Airport as well as health workers and police officers involved in the response to the crash.

[18][10] The Israeli flag carrier El Al suspended flights from Tel Aviv to Moscow for a week "citing developments in Russia's airspace".

[95][96] On 28 December Zelenskyy called Aliyev, expressed condolences and support to Azerbaijan and stated that "Russia must provide clear explanations and stop spreading disinformation".

[97] White House spokesperson John Kirby said that the United States had seen "early indications" that Russia may have been responsible for the crash, adding that Washington had offered to assist in the investigation.

[98] European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also said the crash was a "stark reminder" of the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in 2014 and called for a "swift, independent international investigation".

[111] On 28 December, Putin apologised to Aliyev for the "tragic incident involving the aircraft that occurred in Russian airspace", but did not confirm that the flight had been shot down and did not take responsibility.

[117][118] Azerbaijani officials claimed that the pilots were denied permission to conduct an emergency landing at any airport in Russia, forcing them to change course to Aktau, an alleged attempt to hide evidence in the hopes the aircraft would crash into the Caspian Sea.

[133] Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency suggested that based on preliminary information, the request for emergency landing was due to a bird strike.

[141] On 26 December Azerbaijani government sources stated to AnewZ and Euronews that a Russian Pantsir-S1 had fired a missile at the aircraft above Grozny, detonating near the plane, injuring passengers and crew members.

[144] According to the same sources, despite the pilots' requests to perform an emergency landing, they were denied to do so at any Russian airport, instead being ordered to fly towards Aktau.

[81] Subsequent analysis indicated that the missile explosion occurred at an altitude of 2,400 metres (7,900 ft) over Naursky District, 18 kilometres (11 mi) north-northwest of Grozny airport.

[24] In the article published in The Times on 27 December, an American pilot and two French experts analysed the post-crash video, and stated that the plane was probably hit by a missile.

Experts reported that videos taken before and after the crash indicate that shrapnel pierced the rear of the aircraft, disabling all three parallel hydraulic systems located in the wings and tail section.

When the control systems failed, the crew likely tried to manage the aircraft's pitch and roll angles by independently adjusting the thrust power of the two engines.

[148] On 27 December the Azerbaijani minister of digital development and transportation Rashad Nabiyev said that preliminary results showed that Flight 8243 crashed due to "physical and technical external interference" from an unspecified weapon.

[149] On 29 December President Aliyev said that the aircraft was shot down by Russia unintentionally and criticised Moscow for trying to "hush up" the incident and initially releasing "delirious versions" of what happened.

He also acknowledged Putin's apology over the disaster, while demanding that Russia admit responsibility, punish those culpable and pay compensation to Azerbaijan and the victims.

[6][150] The next day, the Azerbaijani General Prosecutor said that he was told by the head of Russia's Investigative Committee that "intensive measures are being carried out to identify the guilty people and bring them to criminal responsibility".

[151] On 24 January 2025, Azerbaijani media reported that the results of an investigation conducted in Russia confirmed that the aircraft had been shot down by the "Pantsir S-1" Air Defense (AD) system.

[152] On 4 February 2025, a preliminary report by Kazakhstan's Ministry of Transport indicated that the aircraft crashed as a likely result from "external objects" penetrating the structure, causing hydraulic system failure, loss of control, and structural damage, including penetration marks on the vertical stabilizer and stabilizer, along with a complete loss of hydraulic fluid and pressure.

[153] In response, Azerbaijani officials confirmed the discovery of Pantsir S-1 missile fragments inside the wreckage, attributing it to the preliminary report and reinforcing claims that the aircraft was struck by an external force before crashing.

[155] Speaking to Türkiye Today, aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia challenged the bird strike hypothesis, saying "You can lose control of the plane, but you don't fly wildly off course as a consequence."

Türkiye Today noted that the extensive shrapnel damage patterns across the aircraft's fuselage and tail section were inconsistent with damage from bird strikes, instead resembling "anti-aircraft munition impacts", adding that "The concentration of puncture holes in the tail section suggests a possible loss of hydraulic systems, similar to the United Airlines Flight 232 accident".

[157] Osprey Flight Solutions, a United Kingdom-based aviation security firm which provides analysis for airlines still flying into Russia, warned its clients that a Russian military air defence system had likely shot down the aircraft.