Climate change in Tuvalu

Potential threats to the country due to climate change include rising sea levels, increasingly severe tropical cyclones, high temperatures, and drought.

[1] The rising saltwater table could also destroy deep rooted food crops such as coconut, pulaka, and taro before they're overtaken by actual flooding.

[4][5] Meanwhile, one 2018 study from the University of Auckland suggested that Tuvalu may remain habitable over the next century, finding that the country's islands have even grown in area overall in recent decades, though the authors stressed that "Climate change remains one of the single greatest environmental threats to the livelihood and well-being of the peoples of the Pacific" and that "Sea-level rise and climatic change threaten the existence of atoll nations".

The South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) suggests that, while Tuvalu is vulnerable to climate change, environmental problems such as population growth and poor coastal management also affect sustainable development.

SOPAC ranks the country as extremely vulnerable using the Environmental Vulnerability Index.On 27 November 2015 the Government of Tuvalu announced its intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) in relation to the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) under provisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC):[11] Tuvalu commits to reduction of emissions of green-house gases from the electricity generation (power) sector, by 100%, ie almost zero emissions by 2025.

This is also in line with our ambition to keep the warming to less than 1.5°C, if there is a chance to save atoll nations like Tuvalu.Tuvalu faces challenges to its natural environment which will be exacerbated by climate change: Coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion and increasing vector and water borne diseases due to sea level rise.

The SPREP described the climate of Tuvalu as being: [I]nfluenced by a number of factors such as trade wind regimes, the paired Hadley cells and Walker circulation, seasonally varying convergence zones such as the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), semi-permanent subtropical high-pressure belts, and zonal westerlies to the south, with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the dominant mode of year to year variability (...).

A number of studies suggest the influence of global warming could be a major factor in accentuating the current climate regimes and the changes from normal that come with ENSO events (...).

It was installed by the Australian National Tidal Facility (NTF) as part of the AusAID-sponsored South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project.

The usual positive (rising) sea level trends were changed to negative values (falling) for several months due to the effect of the El Niño event.

[25] In March 2015 the storm surge created by Cyclone Pam resulted in waves of 3 to 5 metres (9.8 to 16.4 ft) breaking over the reef of the outer islands caused damage to houses, crops and infrastructure.

[26][41][42] Between 1971 and 2014, during a period of global warming, Tuvalu islands overall have increased in size, according to aerial photography and satellite imagery documented in a study from the University of Auckland.

However, if the increase in sea level occurs at faster rate as compared to coral growth, or if polyp activity is damaged by ocean acidification, then the resilience of the atolls and reef islands is less certain.

[44] Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga has responded to the University of Auckland study with assertions that Tuvalu is not expanding and has gained no additional habitable land.

[20] The investigation of groundwater dynamics of Fongafale Islet, Funafuti, show that tidal forcing results in salt water contamination of the surficial aquifer during spring tides.

About half of Fongafale islet is reclaimed swamp that contains porous, highly permeable coral blocks that allow the tidal forcing of salt water.

However, if the increase in sea level occurs at faster rate as compared to coral growth,[60] or if polyp activity is damaged by ocean acidification, then the resilience of the atolls and reef islands is less certain.

Living in a very fragile island environment, our long-term security and sustainable development is closely linked to issues of climate change, preserving biodiversity, managing our limited forests and water resources.

"[70] The threat of climate change to the islands is not a dominant motivation for migration as Tuvaluans appear to prefer to continue living in Tuvalu for reasons of lifestyle, culture and identity.

[71][72] In 2013 Enele Sopoaga, the prime minister of Tuvalu, said that relocating Tuvaluans to avoid the impact of sea level rise "should never be an option because it is self defeating in itself.

[74] The Pacific countries are projected incur economic losses in the range of 4.6% to 12.7% of the region's annual GDP equivalent by 2100, with the degree of severity changing with different CO2 emission scenarios.

[74] On 16 January 2014 Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga established the National Advisory Council on Climate Change, which functions are "to identify actions or strategies: to achieve energy efficiencies; to increase the use of renewable energy; to encourage the private sector and NGOs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; to ensure a whole of government response to adaptation and climate change related disaster risk reduction; and to encourage the private sector and NGOs to develop locally appropriate technologies for adaptation and climate change mitigation (reductions in [greenhouse gas]).

Each of the named groups are responsible for implementing Tuvalu's NAPA, the main plan to adapt to the adverse effects of human use and climate change.

For approximately 160 metres (520 ft) of coastline in front of the church, following consultation with the Falekaupule, it is proposed to reinstate the former shore by constructing a new seawall made from precast concrete interlocking Seabee units where there are the remnants of existing but crumbling hard coastal protection measures.

"[92] Fry's speech to the conference was a highly impassioned plea for countries around the world to address the issues of man-made global warming resulting in climate change.

In his speech Fry claimed man-made global warming to be currently "the greatest threat to humanity", and ended with an emotional "the fate of my country rests in your hands".

[95] Enele Sopoaga described the important outcomes of COP21 as including the stand-alone provision for assistance to small island states and some of the least developed countries for loss and damage resulting from climate change and the ambition of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.

[98] Prime Minister Sopoaga said in his speech to the meeting of heads of state and government: Tuvalu's future at current warming, is already bleak, any further temperature increase will spell the total demise of Tuvalu.... For Small Island Developing States, Least Developed Countries and many others, setting a global temperature goal of below 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels is critical.

[95] Enele Sopoaga described the important outcomes of the Paris Agreement as including the stand-alone provision for assistance to small island states and some of the least developed countries for loss and damage resulting from climate change and the ambition of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.

[101] Marshall Islands President Christopher Loeak presented the Majuro Declaration to the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon during General Assembly Leaders' week from 23 September 2013.