Coal power in Turkey
[1]: 4 Air pollution from coal-fired power stations is damaging public health,[3]: 48 and it is estimated that a coal phase-out by 2030 instead of by the 2050s would save over 100,000 lives.
[7] Coal-fired power stations are the largest source of greenhouse gas, at about a tonne each year per person, which is about the world average.
Academics suggest that in order to reach Turkey's target of carbon neutrality by 2053, coal power should be phased out by the mid-2030s.
[14] The national plan forecasts coal generation decreasing but capacity payments continuing for flexible and baseload power.
[16] As of 2022[update] Turkey has not ratified the Gothenburg Protocol on emissions ceilings for sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.
[29] Afşin-Elbistan C and further new coal-fired power stations will probably not be constructed,[30][31] due to public opposition,[32] court cases,[33] and the risk of them becoming stranded assets.
There was oversupply of generating capacity and a drop in demand in 2020, and a quarter of power stations were estimated to be cashflow negative.
[38] Solar generation fits better with consumption, as annual peak electricity demand is on summer afternoons, due to air conditioning.
Companies owning large amounts of coal power include Eren, Çelikler, Aydem, İÇDAŞ, Anadolu Birlik (via Konya Sugar) and Diler.
However, conventional coal-fired generation may not have the flexibility required to accommodate a large proportion of solar and wind power.
(cite 2023 NIR page 73 table 3.18)[citation needed] To minimize transport costs, power stations burning imported coal are usually located on the coast; with clusters in Çanakkale and Zonguldak provinces and around Iskenderun Bay.
[31] There is not enough data regarding modern filters, due to many government ambient air monitoring points both being defective[71] and not measuring fine particulate matter.
[73] Larger power stations must measure local pollutants vented into the atmosphere from the smokestack and report them to the Environment Ministry but, unlike the EU, they are not required to publish the data.
[79] There is a pollutant release and transfer register, but as of September 2024 no years are publicly searchable because it is not yet technically complete, and it is not known what exemptions will be granted.
[88] However public information from space-based measurements of carbon dioxide by Climate TRACE is expected to reveal individual large power stations in 2022,[89] and smaller ones by GOSAT-GW in 2023[90] and possibly in 2025 by Sentinel-7.
[91][92] A 2020 study estimated that fitting carbon capture and storage to a power station burning Turkish lignite would increase the cost of its electricity by over 50%.
[94] After the Paris Agreement on limiting climate change was ratified in 2021 many environmental groups called for the government to set a target year for coal phase-out.
A 2021 report from İklim Değişikliği Politika ve Araştırma Derneği (Climate Change Policy and Research Association) said that 2020s environmental law was being evaded by the repeated granting of less stringent 1 year temporary operating licenses, and said that coal ash storage permit criteria (inspections by universities) were unclear, so some power stations were not properly storing unhealthy coal ash .
[21][note 6] Because of its low calorific value lignite-fired electricity costs more to generate than in other European countries (except for Greece).
[112]: 160 In 2023 350.org estimated total coal power assets at 20 billion USD and said that all local insurance was underwritten internationally.
[122] The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism could push coal-power after gas in the merit order: in other words it could become more expensive.
[123] Unlike new solar and wind power in Turkey's electricity market, these were not decided by reverse auction but fixed by the government, and energy demand management is not eligible.
[126] In 2019, the OECD said that energy and climate policies that are not aligned in future may prevent some assets from providing an economic return due to the transition to a low-carbon economy.
[127] The average Turkish coal-fired power station is predicted to have higher long-run operating costs than renewables by 2030.
[131] The World Bank has proposed general objectives and estimated the cost, but has suggested government do far more detailed planning.
However, if the plants and associated lignite mines were shut down, about 5000 workers would need funding for early retirement or retraining.
[139] There would also be health[140] and environmental benefits,[141] but these are difficult to quantify as very little data is publicly available in Turkey on the local pollution by the plants and mines.
[147]: 33 In 2024 thinktank Ember wrote that: “Four of the 38 OECD countries saw coal generation in 2023 fall by less than 30% from its peak: Japan, South Korea, Colombia and Mexico.
