[2]: iv The nation's coal-fired power stations emit the most carbon dioxide, and other significant sources are road vehicles running on petrol or diesel.
Economists say that major reasons for Turkey's greenhouse gas emissions are subsidies for coal-fired power stations,[5]: 18 and the lack of a price on carbon pollution.
But the long-term plan omits coal phase-out,[3][11] and its nationally determined contribution (NDC 3.0[12]) to the Paris Agreement on limiting climate change, which is due in 2025, has not yet been published.
[13][14] In 2024 environment minister Murat Kurum said that by Turkey’s net zero year of 2053 half of primary energy would be from renewables and 30% from nuclear, but did not explain how the remaining 20% could be decarbonized.
[20] Climate Trace use space-based measurements of carbon dioxide to quantify large emission sources, like major coal-fired power stations in Turkey.
[24] Monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) includes sharing information and lessons learned, which strengthens the trust of international climate finance donors.
[38] In 2021, IEA head Fatih Birol called for fossil-fuel producing countries to include limits on methane leaks in their climate pledges,[39] for example the United States is doing this.
Subsidised coal burnt by poor families contributes a bit to climate change, and more importantly its soot pollutes local air.
[47]: 177 If operated at the targeted capacity factor, planned units at Afşin Elbistan would add over 60 Mt CO2 per year,[48]: 319 more than one-tenth of the country's entire emissions.
[1]: 155 Climate Trace has estimated the contributions of individual factories, sometimes from kiln heat visible from satellites,[76] and says that Nuh, Göltaş, and Medcem cement plants emitted more than 1 Mt each in 2023.
Fertilizers can emit the GHG nitrous oxide, but estimates of the effects of government policy on the agricultural and waste sectors' emissions are lacking.
[96] Climate Trace estimate Odayeri (even though it has a biogas facility[97]) on the European side of Istanbul to be the biggest waste single emitter at over 6 Mt in 2023.
[111] Public and private sector working groups discussed the European Green Deal,[112] and the Trade Ministry published an action plan in response to its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
[125] Fossil fuel subsidies risk carbon lock-in, but if they were scrapped (as suggest by environment minister Şimşek[126]) wind and solar power could expand faster.
[128] Ramping down nuclear power in Turkey will be technically possible, at times when solar or wind increases or electricity demand drops, but would be expensive because of high fixed costs and lost sales revenue.
[138] The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said that more could be done to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, and that tax incentives offered for this would create jobs.
[153] Further decarbonisation of cement production would depend heavily on carbon capture,[3]: section 4.2.2.1 perhaps storing in a salt dome near Lake Tuz[154] or in Diyarbakır Province.
[3]: section 4.2.2.1 [194] As of 2021[update] there are almost no supporters of the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, to provide information to investors about the risks of climate change to companies.
[218] During the late 20th and early 21st centuries, growth of the Turkish economy, and to a lesser extent population, caused increased emissions from electricity generation,[219]: 10, 11 industry and construction,[220]: 59–62 as described by the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.
[3]: section 4.2.2.1 While the government pledged to buy 30,000 locally made electric cars,[230] there were few explicit green measures in the 2020 package designed to aid recovery from the country's COVID-19 recession.
[105]: 43 Worldwide, marginal abatement cost studies show that improving the energy efficiency of buildings and replacing fossil fuelled power plants with renewables are usually the most cost-effective ways of reducing carbon emissions.
[236]: 74 Economics professor Ebru Voyvoda has criticised growth policies based on the construction and real estate sectors, and said that moving from fossil fuels to electricity is important.
[268] Likewise, until local production of solar panels[124] and electric vehicles,[269] and mining lithium for batteries[167] all greatly increase, it is hard to avoid importing a lot of petroleum to make diesel and gasoline.
[272] In a 2011 dispute over air pollution in Turkey, the main opposition Republican People's Party criticised the government for prioritising fossil fuels.
[277]: 24 While discussing their limited actions on climate change, Turkey and other countries cited the forthcoming 2020 United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement (not knowing at that time that the US would rejoin early the following year) .
Rather than increase imports of gas, it wanted to retain domestic coal, albeit with safeguards to reduce the impact on human health and the environment.
[288] According to former Economy Minister Kemal Derviş, many people will benefit from the green transition, but the losses will be concentrated on specific groups, making them more visible and politically disruptive.
[289]At the municipal level, Antalya, Bornova, Bursa, Çankaya, Eskişehir Tepebaşı, Gaziantep, İzmir, Kadıköy, Maltepe, Nilüfer and Seferihisar have sustainable energy and climate plans.
The government says that, as a developing country having less than 1% responsibility for historical greenhouse gas emissions, Turkey's position under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement is not fair at all.
[321][322] Environmental lawyers became more active in the 2020s,[323] but as of 2021[update], the European Court of Human Rights has not yet decided whether to hear the case of Duarte Agostinho and Others v. several countries including Turkey, brought by children and young adults.