Complex system approach to peace and armed conflict

[2]: 42 Negative (damping) and positive (amplifying) feedback processes as complex systems features play roles in both stability and rapid change.

Negative feedbacks that promote stability in a peace and conflict context can include legal and moral "lines [not to be] crossed" and social sanctions.

They recommend "look[ing] for critical phenomena, points of control" in which key negative feedback processes can be modified for finding ways to solve ethnic conflicts.

[1]: 33–35 Jason Healey and Robert Jervis argue that during the Cold War, building more weapons could in some cases constitute negative feedback, leading the other side to build fewer weapons, with the effect of maintaining a stable state, while in other cases could constitute positive feedback, contributing to the Cold War arms race.

[2]: 53 The complex systems approach to modelling peace and conflict involves studying interactions and processes, rather than just components and agents.

Healey and Jarvis argue that acute geopolitical crises risk cyberconflict acting as a positive feedback on armed conflict.

In their view, the intervention of the Community of Sant'Egidio in negotiating direct talks modified the system's properties, leading to the Rome General Peace Accords.

The complex system model explains why Sant'Egidio played a crucial role despite having no military, legal or political power.

Prior to independence, positive feedback loops of SPLA administration of land, cattle markets and oil revenue supporting their own ethnic group led to local government being "an empty shell".

UNMISS and other international funding starting in 2011 was managed by the South Sudanese government making statements and "tick[ing] the boxes" to satisfy the donors, while the money itself reinforced the pre-existing dynamical system without modifying it.

Day argues that describing this as corruption is correct but fails to explain the funds' role in the dynamical system, which evolved "to new inputs".

Administrative actions aimed at decentralisation of resources outside of major urban areas effectively contributed to raising SPLA commanders' salaries.