[1] A near-average eight to eleven storms were expected throughout the course of the season, with the possibility of a higher than average number of these attaining Tropical Cyclone strength with winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) or greater as a result of favorable upper-level divergence in the western region of the basin.

[10][11] Météo-France began highlighting the potential for tropical cyclone development in their daily bulletins on 25 November, noting an increase in shower activity west of the Seychelles.

[12] Aided by the passage of a Kelvin wave and a favourable window in the Madden–Julian oscillation, a broad trough of low pressure began to take shape within the storm activity, extending across the equator.

[13][14] Projections from computer models remained in disagreement over the system's future, complicated by the concurrent development of a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Indian Ocean along the same trough.

Due to a strengthening area of high pressure to its east, Belna began to curve from its initial westward drift to a more directed southwestward trajectory.

[24] After a brief period of strengthening,[18] Belna's central dense overcast remained largely unchanged throughout 6 December before signs of resumed intensification emerged by the day's end, followed by the development of another eye.

[49][50] At 18:00 UTC on 5 December, MFR upgraded Ambali to intense tropical cyclone status following a sharp 80 km/h (50 mph) increase in the storm's winds in 12 hours.

However, in post-season reanalysis, the JTWC reassessed the system as slightly stronger, peaking with 1-min sustained winds of 260 km/h (160 mph), a low-end Category 5-equivalent cyclone (SSHWS).

[55] Within a few hours of Ambali's peak strength, the eye was no longer apparent on infrared satellite imagery; dry air became wrapped close to the core of the cyclone's compact circulation.

[61] Rapid weakening soon proceeded, and by mid-day on 7 December, the storm's coldest cloud tops were displaced east of the center of circulation; Ambali's motion also became erratic as winds in the lower levels of the troposphere began to govern its track.

[75][76] Dry air and wind shear afflicted the nascent storm early in its development, limiting convection to the southern half of Calvinia's circulation.

[80] After the eye had collapsed yet again, an area of high pressure to Calvinia's southeast then began to steer the storm slowly towards the south and away from the Mascarene Islands on 30 December.

[95][105] A centre of circulation of monsoonal character began to develop on 22 January between Juan de Nova Island and the western Malagasy coast, prompting the MFR to designate the system as Zone of Disturbed Weather 06.

The presence of a trough to the south and an equatorial ridge to the north produced a westerly flow in the region, resulting in an unusual eastward track towards the Mascarene Islands.

[109] Based on satellite analysis and scatterometer data, the depression strengthened further near Mauritius to a Moderate Tropical Storm by 18:00 UTC on 24 January and received the name Diane.

[112] Deep convection around the central dense overcast remained persistent, and as a result MFR upgraded Diane to Severe Tropical Storm status on 26 January.

[139] Regions of rotation began to develop within the complex of showers by 1 February, and due to the favourable atmospheric conditions, MFR highlighted the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis in three locations.

[142] MFR classified the system as a Zone of Disturbed Weather on 3 February,[143] and advisories were initiated the next day following detection of an elongated circulation alongside increased convection and wind curvature.

[156] However, improved atmospheric conditions allowed for a burst of convection atop a well-defined circulation on 13 February as it was just east of Madagascar, prompting MFR to reinitiate advisories on the system as Tropical Depression Francisco.

[143] An eye-like feature was observable on microwave satellite imagery around the time Francisco reached its peak strength with sustained winds of 85 km/h (55 mph) on 15 February.

[143][159] Later that day, Francisco made landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar near Mahanoro and quickly weakened over land;[160] satellite data and surface observations suggested that any low-level circulation abated by 16 February.

[173] Aided by conducive environmental conditions, Gabekile intensified into a tropical cyclone by 16 February, presenting a small eye surrounded by a central region of cold cloud tops.

[176][177] Gabekile's winds diminished to Moderate Tropical Storm-force on 17 February as the continued presence of dry air dissipated most of the associated shower and thunderstorm activity.

[184] An influx of dry air and strong wind shear muted convective activity around the low-pressure area,[185][186] eventually leading to its dissipation on 4 March.

[202] The weakening of a subtropical ridge over Madagascar imparted an east-southeastward motion on Herold, causing the storm to track over warmer, untapped waters and restrengthen.

[221] On 29 March, monsoonal flow led to the formation of a broad area of low pressure in the central region of the South-West Indian Ocean basin.

[226] Easterly wind shear impinged upon the system during its early stages, but a favorable upper-air environment provided suitable conditions for persistent convection.

[238][239] The environment was generally favourable for tropical cyclogenesis, with warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear and good poleward upper-level outflow.

Microwave satellite imagery indicated that formative convective banding had begun to wrap into the centre of circulation, and the JTWC assessed the probability of the system strengthening into a tropical cyclone as medium.

[240] However, MFR reported that there was a lack of substantial convergence from the north in the lower troposphere, which they noted could slow or prevent the development of a strong low-level circulation before environmental conditions became less favourable for strengthening.