RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a ten-minute period, while the JTWC estimates sustained winds over a one-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS).
During November 2002, New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research predicted that there would be an eastwards shift in activity during the season, with more tropical cyclones than normal expected to the east of the date line, due to well established weak to moderate El Niño conditions.
[2] The Solomon Islands, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tonga, French Polynesia, New Zealand and the Northern Cook Islands were predicted to experience an average number of tropical cyclones, while Southern Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and New Caledonia were predicted to experience a reduced number of tropical cyclones.
[2] In January 2003, NIWA issued an updated outlook, listing the Northern Cook Islands and French Polynesia as areas predicted to experience an above average number of tropical cyclones.
[3] The Solomon Islands and Tonga were now predicted to experience a reduced number of tropical cyclones, with all other countries expected to face the same risk as the November outlook.
[4] Throughout the season, a moderately warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generated a shift of cyclone activity away from Australia and towards the open waters of the southern Pacific.
[1] By April, an easterly trade wind anomaly took place, signifying the end of the El Niño pattern that had persisted for much of the year.
After being named, Cyclone Yolande began to accelerate into an area of strong wind shear, and convection became increasingly displaced from the center of circulation.
By 1200 UTC on December 5, the convection was already sheared 160 km (99 mi) from the northwest of the circulation center, and as such the cyclone was downgraded to depression status.
Cyclone Zoe developed from the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) on January 23, east of Tuvalu.
[4] Initially developing slowly as a tropical depression, the predecessor to Zoe moved toward the west-southwest under the influence of a high-pressure area.
[8] Accelerating to the southeast, the cyclone began to cross over cool sea surface temperatures and encountered wind shear.
[20] Cyclone Dovi developed on February 5 from an area of circulation within the SPCZ near the northern Cook Islands.
Dovi eventually steered to the southwest, and continued to intensify steadily after fluctuating due to diurnal temperature variations,[4] becoming a Category 1 equivalent on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale on February 8.
The cyclone then again steered towards the south, encountering high wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures.
The remnants continued drifting southwest; the Meteorological Service of New Zealand in Wellington stopped issuing information on it on February 13.
As a weakening cyclone, Eseta passed over the Tongan island of Eua, destroying fruit trees and kava crops.
[10] Cyclone Erica severely impacted the island nation of New Caledonia, causing intense winds and heavy rain.
[11] However, Fili quickly lost tropical characteristics under intense wind shear,[4] becoming an extratropical cyclone the next day and merging with a cold front by 1200 UTC on March 15.
With a ridge to the south, it moved to the west-southwest, quickly intensifying into Tropical Storm Gina by June 5 about 970 km (600 mi) east-southeast of Honiara.
By 0000 UTC on June 7, the JTWC upgraded Gina to the equivalent of a minimal hurricane, after an eye became evident on satellite images.
After turning southeast and then east-southeast in response to a rapidly approaching trough, Gina quickly deteriorated as the convection became displaced from the centre.
[36] Gina struck the island of Tikopia that had already sustained catastrophic damage from Cyclone Zoe less than two months previously.
The system was first noted as a tropical depression during July 3, while it was located about 800 km (495 mi) to the northwest of Honiara in the Solomon Islands of Guadalcanal.
[6][45] On December 10, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 03F had developed within a trough of low pressure, about 635 km (395 mi) to the northeast of Pago-Pago on the American Samoan island of Tutuila.
[7][49][50][51] On January 30, the poorly organised Tropical Disturbance 08F developed within a convergence zone about 325 km (202 mi) to the northeast of Apia on the Samoan island of Upolu.
[9] On March 6, Tropical Depression 11F developed under an upper trough of low pressure about 220 km (140 mi) to the northeast of Nadi, Fiji.
[10] A fairly disorganized tropical disturbance developed during April 6, within a monsoonal convergence zone, about 236 km (147 mi) to the northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.
[57] During the next day, as the disturbance moved southwards, it was assigned the designation 14F, before it was dropped by RSMC Nadi during April 8, as convection surrounding the system became sheared and displaced.
[11][61] The system moved towards the south, with convection surrounding it poorly organised, and displaced to the north of the depression's low level circulation centre.