It uses MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) to combine national factors and local demographics.

Electoral Calculus was founded and is run by Martin Baxter,[1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling.

[3] The election predictions are based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography.

[7] Across the 12 general elections from 1992 to 2024, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in all but one (1992).

[9] With reference to the 2010 United Kingdom general election, it was cited by journalists Andrew Rawnsley[10] and Michael White of The Guardian.