[1] Prior to each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, projections are made about macroeconomic indicators for the economy of the United States.
[2] A Greenbook data set in Microsoft Excel format is also available on the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia website.
This includes only four quarterly Greenbook projections in order to maximize the correspondence and comparability with the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
[4] Some academic publications by the Federal Reserve Board have looked at the historical track record of accuracy of the Greenbook projections as well as their output gap estimates.
For GDP growth, in contrast, we find that once one takes account of Greenbook's advantage in evaluating the current state of the economy, neither large dataset methods nor the Greenbook process offers much advantage over a univariate autoregressive forecast.