Norpoth's model has successfully matched the results of 25 out of 29 United States presidential elections since 1912, with the exceptions being those in 1960, 2000, 2020, and 2024.
[1] Norpoth's research focuses on multiple subjects in political science, including public opinion and electoral behavior, and predicting the results of elections in the United States, Great Britain, and Germany.
[1] Alongside fellow political scientist Michael Lewis-Beck, he is the co-author of The American Voter Revisited, a 2008 book published by the University of Michigan Press the covering the images of presidential candidates, party identification, and why Americans turn out to vote.
[4][5] Other articles written by Norpoth include "Fighting to Win: Wartime Morale in the American Public" with Andrew H. Sidman (2012), "Yes, Prime Minister: The Key to Forecasting British Elections" with Matthew Lebo (2011), "The New Deal Realignment in Real Time" with Andrew H. Sidman and Clara Suong, "History and Primary: The Obama Re-Election" with Michael Bednarczuk, and "Guns 'N Jobs: The FDR Legacy" with Alexa Bankert.
[9] In February 2015, Norpoth projected that Republicans had a 65 percent chance of winning the presidential election the following year.
"[7] On March 2, 2020, Norpoth stated that his model gave Trump a 91 percent chance at winning re-election.
Norpoth cited a "perfect storm" of subsequent surprise events following his prediction that were not taken into account, notably the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, which led to lockdowns, beginning only a few weeks after his prediction, and an economic downturn, which was not improved due to perceived inadequate response by Trump.