Joshua S. Goldstein (born December 27, 1952) is professor emeritus of international relations at American University.
Goldstein in 1988[1] posited a 'hegemony cycle' of 150 years' duration, the four hegemonic powers since 1494 being; 1, Hapsburg Spain, 1494-1648; ended by the Thirty Years War, in which Spain itself was the 'challenger'; the Treaty of Westphalia and the beginnings of the nation-state.
2, the Netherlands, 1648-1815; ended by the challenge from France of the revolutionary and Napoleonic wars, the Treaty of Vienna and introduction of the Congress System 3, Great Britain, 1815-1945; ended by Germany's challenge in two World Wars, and the postwar settlement, including the World Bank, IMF, GATT, the United Nations and NATO.
[2] 4, The United States, since 1945 Goldstein suggests that US hegemony may 'at an indeterminate time' be challenged and ended by China (the 'best fit'), by western Europe, Japan, or (writing in 1988) the USSR.
The situation is unstable due to the continuance of Machiavellian power politics and the deployment of nuclear weapons.