There are two climatologically favored periods during the year for Jamaica hurricane activity, with the first lasting from August to mid-September and the second occurring during the latter half of October.
[1] In 2003, weather historical Michael Chenoweth developed a reconstruction of Jamaica's climate in the 18th century based on daily records kept by slaveowner Thomas Thistlewood, finding 12 tropical cyclone that produced gale-force or stronger sustained winds between 1750 and 1786 in Savanna-la-Mar.
[3] Wind directions were also documented, with westerlies indicative of nearby tropical disturbances during the summer rainy season.
In summer, tropical waves are steered westward into the Caribbean by the high-pressure area; these are the primary cause of rainfall and Jamaica and may develop further into hurricanes before reaching the island.
All landfalling hurricanes developed south of 15°N, and those that form east of the Windward Islands tend to continue west into the Yucatan Peninsula.
[13] During the second activity peak in October, storms impacting Jamaica tend to originate from the southern or southwestern Caribbean and are often associated with the monsoon trough rather than tropical waves.