Madman theory

[14] However, according to the U.S. State Department, another explanation is that the Joint Chiefs of Staff Readiness Test was ordered by Nixon to deter a possible Soviet nuclear strike against the People's Republic of China in 1969.

[15] In July 1969 (according to a CIA report declassified in February 2018), Nixon may have suggested to South Vietnamese president Nguyễn Văn Thiệu that the two paths he was considering were either a nuclear weapons option or setting up a coalition government.

[2][9][18] For instance, during the KORUS FTA renegotiations Trump told U.S. trade negotiators to warn South Korean diplomats that "if they don't give the concessions now, this crazy guy will pull out of the deal", which Jonathan Swan of Axios characterized as a "madman" approach to international relations.

[10] International relations scholar Roseanne W. McManus argued that Trump stating that he was relying on madman theory made the approach counterproductive, as he was undermining the belief that his "madness" was genuine.

[20] Sky News wrote that "Trump's unpredictability should not be understated" after the announcement of the January 2025 three-phase Israel–Hamas war ceasefire proposal[21] Another example of madman theory has also been attributed to Russian president Vladimir Putin, especially in the lead up and during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

"[22] In 2022, days before the invasion, Gideon Rachman argued in the Financial Times that Putin's "penchant for publishing long, nationalist essays" regarding Ukrainian and Russian history, his plans of nuclear weapons exercises as well as his image of "growing increasingly out of touch and paranoid" and isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic, could have been the use of madman strategy.

"[23] In the first days of the invasion, Paul Taylor of Politico also speculated that Putin was using the madman strategy, after his decision to place Russian deterrence nuclear forces on "special alert".

Taylor stated that Putin was exhibiting "pathological behavior" by "swinging wildly from seeming openness to negotiations to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in four fronts, while threatening the world with mass destruction."

"[24] Political scientist Scott Sagan and historian Jeremi Suri have criticized the theory as "ineffective and dangerous", citing the belief that Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev did not understand what Nixon was trying to communicate, and considering the chance of an accident from the increased movements of U.S.

[26] According to political scientists Samuel Seitz and Caitlin Talmadge, "The historical record, both before Trump’s presidency and during it, demonstrates that madman tactics typically fail to strengthen deterrence or generate bargaining leverage."

The madman theory was an important part of U.S. president Richard Nixon's foreign policy .
The secret alert " Joint Chiefs of Staff Readiness Test " in October 1969 was carried out at the direction of President Richard Nixon (left) and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger (right). [ 11 ]
Some consider current U.S. president Donald Trum p to be a modern example of the madman strategy.
During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine , several journalists speculated that Russian president Vladimir Putin was using the madman strategy.