A multiple breadbasket failure is the simultaneous disruption of grain production in several major agricultural regions globally, primarily due to acute climate events.
[4] A 2012 report by the United Nations found that developing countries increasingly depend on grain imports, due to international market purchases frequently being more economically viable than domestic production.
[1] Research and statistical analysis conducted by the McKinsey Global Institute indicates that ongoing climate change is increasing both the likelihood and severity of future multiple breadbasket failures.
[1] Furthermore, when extreme events push agricultural systems beyond critical environmental thresholds, they can induce rapid, nonlinear changes that may be difficult or impossible to reverse.
These interactions are particularly significant in major food-producing regions, where concurrent extreme events can create synchronized stress on global food production.
[7] Key growing regions like the Midwestern United States face increased risk of crop failures or significantly decreased yields from both higher summer temperatures and excessive spring precipitation.
Wheat production could be a notable exception to the other three primary grains, as agricultural and climate research indicated that it may benefit from higher temperatures in some major breadbaskets.
[1] A 2024 study using Earth System Model climate simulations determined that at 1.5 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, approximately 35% of major breadbasket regions are projected to experience extreme heat events.
[8] A different 2024 study using climate model simulations to emulate the period 2028-2057, corresponding to approximately 2 °C warming above preindustrial CO2 levels under high-emission scenarios, projected significant increases in concurrent heat exposure across major agricultural regions.
The study predicted that the Midwestern United States, Mediterranean, and northern South Asia were projected to experience extreme heat affecting more than half their maize reproductive days by 2028-2057.
Such jet stream meanders, or Rossby waves, could impact multiple breadbaskets at once, as was the case with the 2010 Pakistan floods being linked to the 2010 Russian wildfires about 1,500 miles away, both resulting in substantial agricultural losses.
[23][24] Historical research indicates that countries with existing governance challenges or political instability are particularly vulnerable to food-related social unrest, such as Yemen,[25] Tunisia,[26] and Egypt.