Several research and polling firms conducted polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the 2016 Australian federal election on 2 July in relation to voting intention for the Australian House of Representatives (lower house) and leader ratings.
Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election.
Assuming a theoretical uniform swing, for the Labor opposition to get to 76 seats and majority government would require at least 50.5 percent of the two-party vote (a 4.0-point two-party swing or greater), while for the incumbent Coalition to lose majority government would require 50.2 percent of the two-party vote (a 3.3-point two-party swing or greater).
[1] The table below published by The Poll Bludger sets out the final release of federal two-party-preferred polling aggregates by state/territory (and swings since the previous election).
Source: BludgerTrack 1 Jul 2016: Poll Bludger – Methodology – State 2PP history