Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum

Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union The referendum on EU membership took place on 23 June 2016.

Polls on the general principle of the UK's membership of the European Union were carried out for a number of years prior to the referendum.

Opinion polls of voters in general tended to show roughly equal proportions in favour of remaining and leaving.

Polls of business leaders, scientists, and lawyers showed majorities in favour of remaining.

[6] Ipsos MORI and ComRes, and Peter Kellner, the former president of YouGov, have said telephone polls are more reliable.

[10] A joint study by Populus and Number Cruncher Politics in March 2016 concluded that telephone polls were likely to better reflect the state of public opinion on the issue.

[13] Kantar TNS and Opinium, both pollsters with online methodologies, were the two groups that forecast a Leave victory just ahead of the vote.

[43][44] In a follow-up poll reported in March 2016, 63% agreed that "British businesses are better off inside the European Union than out of it" while 20% disagreed.

[44][45] To the statement, "An EU exit risks stifling British business growth", 59% agreed and 30% disagreed.

To the statement, "Our membership of the EU gives British businesses invaluable access to European markets", 71% agreed and 16% disagreed.

To the statement "An EU exit would leave British businesses facing a skills shortage", 35% agreed and 50% disagreed.

[50][51][52] In May 2016, law firm King & Wood Mallesons published a survey of 300 businesses, equally split between France, Spain, Italy, and Germany.

[53][54] In March 2016, Nature reported a survey of 907 active science researchers based in the UK.

[56] The Financial Times surveyed 105 economists about how an exit from the EU would affect their views of the UK's prospects, publishing the results in January 2016.

[58][59] In a poll released in December 2015, Lord Ashcroft asked 20,000 people in the UK to place themselves on a scale of 0–100 of how likely they were vote to remain or leave.

[60][61] In early 2016, Lord Ashcroft polled individuals in each of the other European Union member states to gauge opinion on whether they thought the United Kingdom should leave the EU, whether they thought the UK should remain a member or whether they believed it did not matter.