Peak gas
[1] Although demand is peaking in the United States[2] and Europe,[3] it continues to rise globally due to consumers in Asia,[4] especially China.
[5][6] Natural gas is a fossil fuel formed from plant matter over the course of millions of years.
Natural gas derived from fossil fuels is a non-renewable energy source; however, methane can be renewable in other forms such as biogas.
Hubbert saw gas, coal and oil as natural resources, each of which would peak in production and eventually run out for a region, a country, or the world.
[14] Dr. Anthony Hayward CCMI, chief executive of BP stated in October 2009 that proven natural gas reserves around the world have risen to 190 cubic kilometres (1.2 trillion barrels) of oil equivalent, enough for 60 years' supply if consumption is non-increasing, and that gas reserves are trending upward.
[26] Pratt, in his EUR estimate (p. 96), explicitly included what he called the "phenomenal discovery rate" that the industry was then experiencing in the offshore Gulf of Mexico.
[27] In 1962, Hubbert pushed his predicted peak back a few years based on a more optimistic estimation of 1,000 trillion cubic feet of total original reserves.
But even greater new discoveries in the offshore Gulf of Mexico than anticipated, and development of "unconventional reserves",[29] proved Pratt's EUR estimate to be too low as US gas production rose again.
He revised his estimated ultimate recovery upward to 1,075 trillion cubic feet (30,400 km3) for the lower 48 states only, and predicted: "For natural gas, the peak of production will probably be reached between 1975 and 1980.
"[30] Gas production for the lower 48 states did peak in 1979, and declined for several years, but rose again, and once more Hubbert's assumed EUR of 1,075×10^12 cu ft (30,400 km3) proved to be too low, as actual lower 48 state production from 1936 through 2012 has already exceeded 1,265×10^12 cu ft (35,800 km3), 18% higher than the estimated EUR of 1,075.
In 2008, Tad Patzek of the University of California rejected the single-peak model, and showed the multiple peaks of past US gas production as the sum of five different Hubbert curves.
and warned: "The current drilling effort in the US cannot be sustained without major new advances to increase the productivity of tight formations.
"[35] The Reuters article continues to say "While the number of U.S. rigs drilling for natural gas has climbed about 20 percent over the last year and prices are at record highs, producers have been struggling to raise output."
[42] The Potential Gas Committee, a non-profit group at the Colorado School of Mines, estimated US natural gas resources to be 43,200 cubic kilometres (1,525 trillion cubic feet) in 2007 (86 times current annual consumption) and in 2009 raised their estimate again to 63,600 km3 (2,247 trillion cu ft) (almost 100 times current annual consumption).
The large increase over previous years' estimates was attributed to a surge in natural gas drilling and exploration spurred by a rise in prices and new technology allowing production from once uneconomic formations, such as shale and coal seams.
[8] In their March 2013 report, "Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – The Supply Outlook", the Energy Watch Group predicted that global natural gas production "will peak around or even before the year 2020".
