Probability management

The simplest approach is to use vector arrays of simulated or historical realizations and metadata called Stochastic Information Packets (SIPs).

The first large documented application of SIPs involved the exploration portfolio of Royal Dutch Shell in 2005 as reported by Savage, Scholtes, and Zweidler, who formalized the discipline of probability management in 2006.

[4] A recent approach does not store the actual realizations, but delivers formulas known as Virtual SIPs that generate identical simulation trials in the host environment regardless of platform.

Executive Director Sam Savage is the author of The Flaw of Averages: Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty and is an adjunct professor at Stanford University.

The nonprofit has received financial support from Chevron Corporation, General Electric, Highmark Health, Kaiser Permanente, Lockheed Martin, PG&E, and Wells Fargo Bank.