Proposed secession of Republika Srpska
Although the Bosnian Serbs were viewed as "anti-Dayton" during the first years after the war, since 2000 they have been staunch supporters of the Dayton Agreement and the preservation of RS.
[5] The Serb and Croat political leadership agreed on a partition of BiH with the 1991 Milošević–Tuđman Karađorđevo meeting and the 1992 Graz agreement, leading to a tripartite division of the country.
"[9] On 12 September 1996, Republika Srpska president Biljana Plavšić called for its secession and unification with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia; since that contravened the Dayton Agreement, however, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe compelled her to retract her recommendation.
[11] In 2003, Aleksandar Jokic wrote that an international policy partitioning Kosovo and joining Republika Srpska with Serbia and Montenegro offered "long-term security and stability for the region".
"[21] Dodik said in an interview that if most countries recognise Kosovo's self-proclaimed independence, this would legitimise the right to secession: "We do not see a single reason why we should not be granted the right to self-determination, the right envisaged in international conventions.
[23] According to a November 2010 poll of Bosnian Serbs by the Brussels-based Gallup Balkan Monitor, 88 percent would support a referendum on Republika Srpska's independence from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
[27] Former CIA Balkans chief Steven Meyer said in 2013 and 2014 that he believed that Republika Srpska would become independent in time, that Bosnia and Herzegovina exists only on paper, and the people should decide for themselves.
[34] According to a BMI Research analysis, "Bosnia's Serbian entity, Republika Srpska (RS), is unlikely to achieve formal independence over the next five years, owing to widespread opposition on the part of the EU and US, which do not wish to see a redrawing of Balkan borders.
[40] In May 2017, Steven Meyer (considering the possible creation of Greater Albania) said that Bosnia and Herzegovina was "far from a united country" and predicted a deteriorating relationship with RS.
[46] In 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine heightened fears of instability in the Western Balkans, with concerns that Moscow's influence could embolden Republika Srpska's secessionist ambitions.
[47] In April 2023, Dodik emphasized the idea of uniting Republika Srpska with Serbia, portraying it as a natural progression for the Serb population.
He suggested that the current constitutional framework, established by the Dayton Peace Agreement, had outlived its purpose and that Republika Srpska's future lay in greater autonomy or outright independence.
