[2][1] When a new regime moves in, often led by the military, civil society typically fails to rally around the central government, and societal actors fend for themselves at the local level.
[3] Recent scholarship has focused on identifying measurable dimensions of state capacity, building on the institutionalist approach associated with Max Weber.
[2] Daniel Lambach, Eva Johais, and Markus Bayer have thus defined state collapse as the inability to make and enforce binding rules; maintain a monopoly on violence; and collect taxes.
[2] The majority of cases were in sub-Saharan Africa, involving armed rebellions in countries including Chad, Uganda, Liberia, Somalia, Angola, Zaire, Guinea-Bissau, and Sierra Leone, plus Congo-Kinshasa, which collapsed following decolonization from Belgium.
[4] In their article in Global Change, Peace & Security, they argue that a state collapse happens when 1) opposition groups arm themselves and mobilise against the government; 2) political transitions such as decolonisation or regime change cause existing power structures to be questioned; 3) politics prolong power struggles and undermine existing institutions; 4) repression causes extreme distrust between rulers and the rest of society; 5) factionalism obstructs strengthening of state policies; 6) loss of cohesion within the ruling elite erodes the monopolisation of violence, rule-making, and tax collection; and 7) external interventions contribute to destabilisation.
[4] Islamic scholar Ibn Khaldun (1332–1406) produced a general theory of state collapse, transforming the study of history into a "new science".
[7] Professor Geoff Mulgan discusses Ibn Khaldun in detail and agrees on the timescale: "There are obvious parallels between the lifespans of individuals and those of ruling groups.
"[8] In the case of the USSR, a Marxist revolutionary wave had formed in which several subordinate regimes in Eastern Europe and Africa collapsed almost simultaneously with the central power.
In a totalitarian state or an ideocracy, individuals may develop a closed mind and an authoritarian personality, making them more likely to resist threats to the incumbent regime.
[16][17] In the USSR and Apartheid South Africa, the state became 'evil or tyrannical... destroying the institutions of civil society';[18] and in Somalia between 1970 and 1991, Siad Barre changed from 'prophetic rule, to autocracy, to tyranny'.
[30] His drive to destroy (the Jews, communism, Europe) was an unconscious attempt to resolve his Oedipus complex and the injustices of his childhood.
"[38] Nicolae Ceaușescu "went mad" as early as 1971 according to John Sweeney, when, "blind to his own Messianism", he attempted to recreate North Korean totalitarianism in Romania.
[46] Few political scientists credibly predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union or agreed on its causes:[47] in hindsight, Leonid Fituni lists 'poverty, hunger, regional conflicts, ethnic wars, deindustrialisation, foreign debt, elite corruption, disease epidemics, refugee problems, environmental issues' as causes.
[50] When the state fails to reward the people with civil rights, participation, accountability and oversight, legitimacy fades and collapse may occur[51] In Afghanistan, the non-inclusive 2004 constitution, the international coalition's focus on power consolidation at the expense of democracy, and president Ashraf Ghani's narrow circle of support, caused the regime to fall in 2021 as it 'lacked legitimacy in the eyes of the people'.
[59] In the Soviet Union, the dramatic drop of the price of oil in 1985 and 1986[60] and the Reagan administration's escalation of the arms race ('they can't sustain military spending the way we can') overstretched the USSR economy:[61] while the economy of apartheid South Africa was weakened by sanctions, banking and other boycotts, divestment and shareholder activism.
If civil war results, the state loses its Monopoly on violence, and force becomes privatised under warlords, paramilitary or guerrilla units.
According to Sabrina Ramet, regenerative changes occurred in Yugoslavia in the 1980s when the communist ideology was replaced by a nationalist drive for a Greater Serbia and by an anti-bureaucratic revolution in support of Slobodan Milosevic.
The gradual weakening and collapse of the Byzantine empire starting in the 11th century led to territory being occupied by European and Ottoman powers, accelerating the total failure of the state.
The USSR breakup led to regional wars in the newly created states of Tajikistan, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
[88] The prospect, and chaos, of state collapse provides fearful elites with motive and opportunity to kill en masse (though the planning and implementation of genocide may be hampered by reduced resources).
[89] When defeat appeared inevitable, Hitler ordered the killing of invalids, Gypsies, Russians and Jews in the Final solution.
Collapsed states are now expected to be rebuilt, territorially intact and along democratic lines, with the help of multilateral organizations and bilateral donors.
[97] Anyone attempting this in Somalia would have to; disarm thousands of gunmen, stop the arms trafficking, set up a justice system and rebuild the economy, all against the opposition of warlords, extremists and smugglers.
[100] "The political project drew much of its inspiration from the U.S. Bill of Rights, New Deal social legislation, the liberal constitutions of several European states and even the Soviet Union.
"[101] Collapse may be followed by formal or informal efforts at justice, such as the Nuremberg trials and the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (South Africa).
[105] Hegemony in the Middle East has been subject to quarrels between British, French,[106] Israeli,[107][better source needed] American,[108] Arab nationalist,[109] Saudi and Iranian interests[110] ever since.
Sebastian Haffner had argued that Hitler, 'whether we like it or not', created many features of the postwar world, including the state of Israel, the end of European empires, the division of Germany, and the joint hegemony of the US and USSR.