Origins of the term are attributed to Philip E. Tetlock with results from The Good Judgment Project and subsequent book with Dan Gardner Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
The conclusion was that superforecasters' ability to filter out "noise" played a more significant role in improving accuracy than bias reduction or the efficient extraction of information.
[10] In the Good Judgment Project, "the top forecasters... performed about 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read intercepts and other secret data".
In addition, they have made "accurate predictions about world events like the approval of the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote in 2020, Saudi Arabia’s decision to partially take its national gas company public in 2019, and the status of Russia’s food embargo against some European countries also in 2019".
[19] One of Tetlock's findings from the Good Judgment Project was that cognitive and personality traits were more important than specialised knowledge when it came to predicting the outcome of various world events typically more accurately than intelligence agencies.
In the Good Judgment Project, the superforecasters "scored higher on both intelligence and political knowledge than the already well-above-average group of forecasters" who were taking part in the tournament.