Tigrayan peace process
In 2 November 2022, the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan leaders signed a peace accord in Pretoria, South Africa, with the African Union as a mediator, and agreed on "orderly, smooth and coordinated disarmament".
[4] Abiy, Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki and Somali president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmaajo) held a Tripartite Agreement meeting in Asmara on 27 January 2020,[5] Abiy visited an Eritrean military base in July 2020, and Isaias visited the Harar Meda Airport Ethiopian air base in Bishoftu in October 2020.
[15] On 13 December, Sudanese prime minister Abdalla Hamdok stated that he had agreed with Abiy to hold an emergency meeting of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development grouping together seven East African countries.
[23] In late March, Abiy refused a ceasefire proposal recommended by US Senator Chris Coons on behalf of US president Joe Biden.
"[26] In late July, a group of anonymous "Concerned Ethiopians" issued a public appeal, published by the World Peace Foundation, for a mediated negotiation between the federal, Tigrayan and Amhara governments, to start with confidence-building measures including the "[de-escalation] of rhetoric" and cessation of hate speech, mutual uncondition recognition, a one-month ceasefire, statements of each government's demands, and withdrawal of the EDF from all of Ethiopia.
[27] In early August, Sudanese prime minister Abdalla Hamdok, in his role as head of IGAD, proposed to mediate between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan leaders.
On 8 November, Olusegun Obasanjo, former president of Nigeria and the African Union's newly appointed Horn of Africa envoy,[35] stated to the AU Peace and Security Council that he had met separately with both Abiy Ahmed and Debretsion Gebremichael.
The OFC's proposal included an immediate ceasefire, the release of all political prisoners, and "a total repudiation of all incitements to violence and hate speech in all forms".
[37] On 20 December 2021, the TPLF announced they had withdrawn their troops from Amhara and Afar, saying they were hoping to create, as stated by Debretsion, "a decisive opening for peace."
[43] Reportedly, on 10 March, U.S. officials arranged for a secret meeting to occur in the Seychelles between Tigray's Tsadkan Gebretensae and Ethiopia's Birhanu Jula, in order for the two to negotiate a possible truce.
[46] On 2 May, Debretsion released an open letter on Twitter to the UN, African Union Chairperson Macky Sall and Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, warning of the "looming danger" of a possible future military operation by Eritrea.
Eritrea, in turn, released its own statement on 17 May, claiming that Tigray was being supported by "Western forces," and was preparing to launch more attacks; they also alleged that the TPLF had "a plan to obscure the rays of peace and cooperation that emerged in 2018 […] and return the whole region back to the turmoil, instability, and civil conflict they inflict.
[48] Senior analyst for the International Crisis Group William Davison, in a statement made to the Associated Press, said that decision to release the prisoners may have been "both a sign of goodwill and also of the acute food shortage in Tigray," and endorsed the idea of restoring services to the region in order to ensure peace.
[49] On the first week of June, the TPLF stated that, in order to reach an acceptable peace, they should be allowed to regain control of the Western Zone, saying it was "non-negotiable," and requested a "complete and verified withdrawal of all invading forces from every square inch of Tigrayan territory.
However, TPLF chairman Debretsion responded to this by stating that, "if the federal government was really ready to make peace, it would have resumed basic public services in the [Tigray] region.
The Ethiopian government favoured the AU's Horn of Africa envoy Olusegun Obasanjo; the Tigrayan leadership, on the other hand, wanted Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta to lead mediation efforts instead.
By this point, while international aid had been allowed into the region since March, the issue of access to essential services in Tigray – which the TPLF had stated was a prerequisite to negotiations – still remained unresolved.
In addition, TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda alleged on Twitter that Ethiopian government forces were "taking provocative actions" and "flaunting their belligerent behavior in public.
She dismissed the repeated calls to restore services to Tigray, saying it was a separate issue from the ceasefire talks, and would require a more stable environment for it to come into effect.
[56] On 7 September – two weeks after the ceasefire collapsed – Debretsion sent a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, issuing a request for peace, on the condition that humanitarian access be restored, that Eritrean troops completely withdraw from the region, and that the area would remain under international supervision.
[68][69] António Guterres expressed his alarm on 17 October that "the situation in Ethiopia [was] spiraling out of control" and that Ethiopian society was "being ripped apart"; he insisted that peace talks be arranged as soon as possible.
[74][75][76] TPLF rebel leader Tsadkan Gebretensae and spokesperson Getachew Reda attended the talks, as did Ethiopian national security advisor Redwan Hussein.
[83][84][85] On 7 November, Ethiopian and Tigrayan officials met for a new set of talks in Nairobi, Kenya, in order to discuss restoring humanitarian access to Tigray.
On the other hand, Yohannes Abraha, a North America representative for Tigray, also told the news outlet that aid had not been made available to the region since August 2022, and continued to remain inaccessible even after the signing of the Pretoria agreement.
[97] WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus – who is Tigrayan, and a former head of the Ethiopian Ministry of Health – initially welcomed news of the agreement;[98] on 9 November, however, he expressed concern, saying "nothing is moving in terms of food aid or medicines."
[99] On 12 November, military leaders from both parties announced in a joint statement that, as part of the Nairobi declaration, they had agreed to lift the restrictions on aid to those who needed it in "Tigray and neighbouring regions"; Obasanjo made assurances that humanitarian access would "begin with immediate effect.
[91] They both also signed a declaration reaffirming their commitment to the original agreement,[102] laid out the specifics of how to implement it, and agreed to begin the Tigrayan disarmament process on 15 November.
As of 2021[update], secession was opposed by senior officials within the TPLF and popular among younger people in Tigray, with expectations that an independence referendum could be organised.
